The Q4 earnings season is off to a full-fledged start this week. Big banks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are expected to come up with earnings results this week. Corporate earnings expectations have strengthened over recent quarters, with estimates trending steadily higher.
S&P 500 Earnings Set for Another Strong Quarter
For Q4 2025, total S&P 500 earnings are projected to rise 7.9% year over year, supported by an 8.2% increase in revenues. If realized, this would mark the 10th consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth for the index, indicating the resilience of corporate profitability, per Earnings Trends issued on Jan. 7, 2026.
Tech: The Key Driver
The Technology sector has been the dominant earnings driver since 2023 and is expected to maintain the contribution in Q4 2025 and beyond. Excluding Tech, overall Q4 earnings growth would slow sharply to 3.8% from 7.9%, highlighting the sector’s outsized impact.
What Awaits in 2026?
Looking ahead, Tech is projected to contribute nearly half of total S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026. All 16 Zacks sectors are expected to record positive earnings growth in 2026, the first time since 2018, with nine sectors expected to achieve double-digit growth, including Aerospace, Autos Basic Materials, Tech, Transportation, and Industrials, per the same Earnings Trends article.
For the Mag 7 group - Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon, total 2026 earnings are expected to increase by 16.5% on 15% higher revenues, which would follow the group’s estimated 2025 earnings growth of 21.7% on 11.9% higher revenues.
Sector ETFs in Focus
Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few sector-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that should enjoy the tailwind of rising Q4 estimates and strong year-over-year growth.
Aerospace – iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ITA – Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)
For the Aerospace sector, total earnings are up 62.3% from the same period last year on 12.0% higher revenues.President Trump’s proposed $500 billion defense spending push has fueled a broad rally in global aerospace and defense stocks. Worldwide military outlays reached a record $2.7 trillion in 2024 as rising geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand.
While aerospace and defense stock valuations have become richer, solid earnings momentum and an uncertain geopolitical backdrop are tailwinds. The Aerospace sector is also benefiting from high-margin aftermarket services, and repairs as global aircraft fleet ages (read: Defense ETFs in 2026: Trump's Spending Push & Other Key Tailwinds).
Tech – Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF XLK – Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)
Total Tech sectorearnings are expected to grow 15.4% in Q4 on 16.3% higher revenues, which follows earnings growth of 27.3% on 15.5% higher revenues in Q3 of 2025. For the ‘Mag 7’ companies — the core of the tech sector — total Q4 earnings are expected to be up 17.3% on 16.5% higher revenues.This follows the group's +28.3% earnings growth in Q3 on +18.1% higher revenues.
Finance – Vanguard Financials ETF VFH – Zacks Rank #1
Total finance sectorearnings are expected to grow 11.9% in Q4 on 9.4% higher revenues. Earnings growth is expected to be 17.7%, 11.5% and 1.1% in Q1 of 2026, Q2 of 2026 and Q3 of 2026 on, respectively, 8.2%, 7.2% and 4.3% higher revenues.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
