Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) underperformed in 2025 while gold soared 120%, yet BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes says dollar liquidity is about to return in 2026.
The Real Reason Bitcoin Lagged
The Professional Capital Management CEO used his latest essay to point out why Bitcoin traded flat while gold exploded and tech stocks kept climbing.
Bitcoin follows dollar liquidity. When the money supply shrinks, Bitcoin drops. When it expands, Bitcoin surges.
Gold surged because central banks dumped U.S. treasuries after Russia’s $300 billion asset freeze in 2022. Venezuela’s recent military operation intensified the flight to non-confiscatable reserves.
Tech stocks kept rising because Donald Trump turned AI into a national priority.
Bitcoin didn’t have either advantage, so it tracked the one thing that matters: dollar liquidity going down.
Three Ways Money Supply Explodes In 2026
Hayes sees three catalysts returning dollars into the system starting now.
First, the Federal Reserve ended its balance sheet drawdown in December and launched a new program, adding at least $40 billion per month into markets.
Second, JPMorgan Chase & Co created a $1.5 trillion loan program for industries the government labels “strategic.” When banks make loans, they create new money instantly.
Federal Reserve data shows bank lending turned positive in Q4 2025 after contracting most of the year.
Third, President Trump ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion worth of mortgages.
Lower mortgage rates mean homeowners can borrow against their home equity and spend that money, which Hayes sees as election-year stimulus.
Why Gold Went Parabolic
December trade data tells the real story behind gold’s rally.
The U.S. trade deficit dropped 11% to $52.8 billion—the lowest since June 2020.
Over 100% of that improvement came from gold exports, according to Commerce Department data reported by the Financial Times.
Meanwhile, retail investors aren’t buying gold. SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) holdings keep shrinking, which means the real mania hasn’t even started yet.
Hayes calculates gold could hit $12,000 if central banks keep buying at this pace.
Hayes Loads Up On Leveraged Bitcoin Plays
Hayes said he bought Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Metaplanet Inc. (OTC:MTPLF)—two companies that borrow money to buy Bitcoin.
Both stocks trade near two-year lows relative to Bitcoin’s price.
If BTC climbs back to $110,000, these companies should outperform because they hold Bitcoin bought with borrowed money.
Hayes runs the Maelstrom fund and says he’s “nearly fully invested” but adding more risk anyway because the liquidity wave looks inevitable.
What Happens Next
Bitcoin bottomed alongside dollar liquidity in late 2025, and that liquidity has now turned decisively higher.
With the Fed easing, banks lending again, and housing stimulus incoming, Bitcoin becomes the most direct, leveraged bet on renewed dollar expansion.
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