G-III’s 28.1% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 16.6%, and its stock price has climbed to $29.77 per share. This run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is there a buying opportunity in G-III, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full stock story straight from our expert analysts, it’s free.
Why Do We Think G-III Will Underperform?
We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we don't have much confidence in G-III. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than GIII and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints
A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years. Over the last five years, G-III grew its sales at a weak 5.8% compounded annual growth rate. This fell short of our benchmark for the consumer discretionary sector.
2. Mediocre Free Cash Flow Margin Limits Reinvestment Potential
Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.
G-III has shown poor cash profitability over the last two years, giving the company limited opportunities to return capital to shareholders. Its free cash flow margin averaged 10.9%, lousy for a consumer discretionary business.
3. New Investments Aren’t Moving the Needle
A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Unfortunately, G-III’s ROIC has stayed the same over the last few years. If the company wants to become an investable business, it must improve its returns by generating more profitable growth.
Final Judgment
G-III doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 11× forward P/E (or $29.77 per share). This valuation is reasonable, but the company’s shaky fundamentals present too much downside risk. There are more exciting stocks to buy at the moment. We’d recommend looking at one of our top software and edge computing picks.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of G-III
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