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Chicago, IL – January 19, 2026 – Zacks Equity Research shares CF Industries CF as the Bull of the Day and Shake Shack SHAK as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Chegg, Inc. CHGG, Duolingo, Inc. DUOL and Udemy, Inc. UDMY.
Here is a synopsis of all five stocks.
CF Industries, a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), is one of the largest producers and distributors of nitrogen-based fertilizers in the world and a dominant supplier across North America. The company’s core products include ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN), and ammonium nitrate, which are essential inputs for global crop production.
The stock has shown bullish momentum to start the year as the fertilizer sector turns more constructive heading into 2026, with investors looking past recent softness toward tightening nutrient balances and a recovery in demand.
That shift is already showing up in the numbers, as earnings estimates move higher and CF stands out as a preferred way to gain exposure to a strengthening fertilizer cycle.
About the Company
Founded in 1946 and headquartered in the Chicago area, CF serves agricultural and industrial customers across North America and global markets.
CF operates two of the largest nitrogen fertilizer complexes on the continent, located in Donaldsonville, Louisiana and Medicine Hat, Alberta, giving it scale, logistical advantages, and low-cost production tied to North American natural gas.
Beyond fertilizers, CF produces hydrogen and nitrogen-based products for industrial uses including emissions abatement, energy, and diesel exhaust fluid. The company became the global leader in nitrogen fertilizers after acquiring Terra Industries in 2010 and later sharpened its focus by divesting its phosphate business to Mosaic in 2014, while retaining a long-term ammonia supply agreement.
The company is valued at $13 billion and has a Forward PE of 12. The stock has Zacks Style Scores of “A” in Value, as well as a “B” in Momentum and Growth. The stock also pays a 2.3% dividend.
Investors Get Bullish on Fertilizers
The fertilizer space is quietly flipping bullish again after a multiyear digestion phase, with improving fundamentals across potash, nitrogen, and phosphate markets.
Morgan Stanley’s recent upgrade of Nutrien to Overweight is emblematic of a broader shift in thinking: nutrient markets appear tighter for longer, inventories are lean, and global application rates are finally catching up after years of soil nutrient drawdowns.
Potash shipment growth is now expected to extend into a fourth consecutive year, something not seen since the mid-2000s, while capacity utilization is projected to remain above 90 percent through at least 2028.
For CF Industries, this turn in the fertilizer cycle is particularly powerful. While the Morgan Stanley call focuses on potash and Nutrien, the same forces are bullish for nitrogen producers. Tight global nutrient balances mean farmers are less able to defer applications, especially for nitrogen, which must be applied annually and cannot be mined from soils for long.
CF’s scale, low cost North American production base, and heavy exposure to ammonia, UAN, and urea position it to benefit directly as pricing stabilizes and volumes remain firm.
Q3 Earnings Beat
CF Industries delivered a 6% Q3 earnings beat in November, with ammonia network utilization reaching 97 percent year to date. Third quarter maintenance executed as planned and full year production guidance left unchanged at 10 million tons of gross ammonia for 2025.
Management emphasized that global nitrogen supply demand remains tight, with low inventories and ongoing outages limiting availability. With that, demand stayed robust across North America, India, and Brazil.
Beyond the headline beat, several strategic items stood out that reinforce CF’s longer-term upside.
The Donaldsonville complex began full diesel exhaust fluid rail load out in August, setting a monthly shipment record and boosting high margin DEF sales. CF also highlighted progress on emissions reduction and monetization, including nitric acid abatement at Verdigris and CO2 dehydration and compression at Donaldsonville, which are already generating 45Q tax credits and enabling premium priced low carbon ammonia sales.
Management expects carbon capture, sequestration, and abatement projects to contribute $150 to $200 million of incremental annual free cash flow by the end of the decade, while capital spending remains within guidance.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Quote
Estimates Surge Ahead of EPS
The stock next reports earnings in the middle of February, with analysts continuing to hike estimates. Over the last 90 days since the most recent earnings report, estimates have moved sharply higher across all time frames.
For the current quarter, estimates have gone from $2.07 to $2.55, or 23%.
For next quarter, we see a smaller move of 7%, going from $1.99 to $2.12.
For the current year, another 7% jump estimates, going from $8.31 to $8.94.
Numbers go higher next year as well, with estimates going from $6.88 to $7.27, or 6%
With those estimates, analysts have set price targets well above the current trading level. Right after earnings both Wolfe Research and RBC reiterated their $95 targets.
The Technical Take
Unfortunately for CF investors the stock has gone sideways for five years. After hitting highs near $120 in 2022, the stock has been stuck around $80 level. The bulls made an attempt to break above the $100 level early last year, but that move failed and the stock fell back to $80.
The stock has recently ticked higher, moving above the 50-day moving average. The move challenges a Fibonacci resistance level at $86.50 and the October highs. A move above that level and the bulls should target that $100 mark again.
Longer-term, the bulls have some work to do to convince the rest of the market. A move over $100 would break long-term resistance and possibly help the stock extend to the $120 all-time highs.
In Summary
CF Industries offers a compelling fundamental setup as the fertilizer cycle begins to turn more constructive. Tight global nitrogen balances, low inventories, and improving demand visibility are aligning with CF’s scale, low-cost production base, and strong free cash flow generation.
With estimates moving higher, supportive industry dynamics forming into 2026, and management executing well across both core fertilizer and adjacent growth initiatives, CF stands out as a high-quality way to gain exposure to a recovering fertilizer market without relying on aggressive assumptions.
Shake Shack, a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a New York-based fast casual burger chain founded in 2001, known for its burgers, chicken, hot dogs, crinkle-cut fries, shakes, frozen custard, beer, and wine.
SHAK has rallied 30% recently, but investors should be cautious after recent guidance. The company noted that the final six weeks of Q4 fell short due to severe weather in key urban markets, highlighting its reliance on high-traffic locations.
Rising labor, food, and supply costs continue to squeeze margins, while competition from both established fast-food chains and premium burger brands intensifies pricing pressure, leaving same-store sales and profitability exposed to volatility.
About the Company
Shake Shack operates and licenses restaurants, commonly called "Shacks," both domestically and internationally. Since opening its first Madison Square Park location in 2004, Shake Shack has expanded to 579 locations worldwide, including 329 company-operated Shacks and 250 licensed locations across 20 countries.
Key international markets include London, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Mexico City, Istanbul, Dubai, Tokyo, Seoul, Toronto, and Kuala Lumpur.
The company has a market cap of $4B and a PE of 65. The stock holds Zacks Style Scores of “A” in Growth, But “F” in Momentum.
Recent Guide for Q4
Shake Shack’s reported preliminary guidance for Q4, which reinforced caution for investors despite the stock’s rally.
Q4 revenue came in slightly below expectations and was blamed on the severe weather in urban markets over the last six weeks of the quarter. While same-Shack sales remained positive, the miss shows the chain’s vulnerability to short-term disruptions and its heavy reliance on high-traffic locations.
Looking ahead, Shake Shack cut its FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $208–212 million and trimmed restaurant-level margins to 22.6–22.8%, reflecting ongoing pressure from rising labor, food, and supply costs.
Although management projects modest margin expansion and continued unit growth in FY26, achieving these targets depends heavily on operational efficiency, marketing initiatives, and product innovation.
Elevated beef prices, intense competition from both fast-food giants and emerging premium burger concepts, and the need for heavy capital investment in new Shacks suggest near-term earnings could remain under pressure.
Earnings Estimates See Recent Drop
Estimates have fallen aggressively over the last 90 days and have seen another round of downticks since the preliminary guide.
For the current quarter, estimates have dropped 23%, going from $0.51 to $0.39 over the last 90 days. Since the guide, estimates were lowered $0.01, or 2.5%.
For next quarter, estimates have dropped 32%, going from $0.25 to $0.17 over the last 90 days. Since the guide, estimates were lowered $0.01, or 15%.
Next year does not improve. Numbers have dropped 12% over the last 90 days and from $1.61 to $1.54 since the guide.
Technical Take
The stock bottomed late last year under the $80 level. This was just above the lows of the year, with buyers stepping up around the $76 area.
2026 has been kind to SHAK investors, with a move to $80 to $90 in the first week and then a move to $102 after the guide.
That $102 spot happened to be the 200-day MA, an area where we likely see resistance. If the bulls do push above that area, overall market strength will likely be the reason. The Fibonacci levels above are $109 and $117.
Looking at a possible pullback, the $88 area is the 50-day moving average.
In Summary
Shake Shack faces a challenging backdrop despite its recent rally. Rising costs, intense competition, and reliance on urban traffic make profitability and same-store sales vulnerable, while ambitious expansion plans add execution risk. With guidance showing pressure on margins and earnings estimates trending lower, investors should be cautious.
Does Chegg's B2B Focus Reduce Exposure to Traffic Volatility?
Chegg, Inc. is reshaping its business model to address rising uncertainty in student-driven online traffic. The company is shifting focus toward a business-to-business model, where revenues rely more on enterprise partnerships than on search-based student visits. This move aims to reduce exposure to traffic volatility that has weighed heavily on the legacy academic platform.
The core academic business has been under pressure due to the rapid adoption of generative Artificial Intelligence and changes in online search behavior. AI-powered tools now offer instant academic help, reducing the need for traditional study platforms. In addition, lower visibility on Google search has further weakened traffic trends. These factors have made the direct-to-consumer model less predictable and more dependent on external platforms.
In the third quarter of 2025, total revenues declined 42% year over year. The decline was caused by reduced traffic across legacy academic services and lower advertising-related revenues. The company indicated that the core academic segment recorded a revenue drop of more than 40% year over year in the third quarter of 2025. Legacy traffic fell by nearly 50% as of the third quarter of 2025, reflecting the combined impact of AI disruption and search-related challenges.
To counter this pressure, the company is prioritizing its B2B skilling operations, which serve enterprises and workforce partners. This model depends more on contracted relationships, seat-based usage and retention rather than search traffic, offering better revenue visibility and lower sensitivity to traffic swings. While risks remain, the B2B focus meaningfully reduces reliance on volatile consumer traffic and could help stabilize performance as digital education continues to evolve.
Chegg’s Competitive Position in the EdTech Market
Chegg operates in a highly competitive landscape, with renowned names like Duolingo, Inc. and Udemy, Inc. operating beside it in the ed tech market.
Duolingo dominates the language-learning niche with its gamified app and AI-driven engagement. With a strong mobile presence and daily user engagement, Duolingo has built a brand synonymous with accessible, bite-sized learning. On the other hand, Udemy operates across both consumer and enterprise markets, positioning its platform around professional skill development, AI enablement and workforce transformation. This dual exposure allows Udemy to participate in long-term learning trends while steadily improving revenue quality and visibility.
CHGG Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend
Shares of this California-based education technology company have sunk 38.9% in the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Software industry, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 index.
CHGG stock is currently trading at a discount compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.33.
Earnings Estimate Trend of CHGG
The 2026 earnings per share estimate has remained unchanged at 18 cents over the past 60 days. Earnings for 2026 are expected to grow a whopping 228.6%.
Chegg currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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