BHP Ups Copper Outlook To Catch Record Pricing, Competitors' Supply Hits Help

By Lekha Gupta | January 20, 2026, 7:24 AM

BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) stock fell Tuesday after the miner reported its second-quarter and first-half fiscal 2026 results.

Weak Q2 Copper Production

Copper production declined 4% year over year (Y/Y) to 490.5 Kt, with production at the Escondida mine decreasing 7% and Pampa Norte falling 13% Y/Y in the quarter.

Copper production declined 1% quarter on quarter due to a decline in Escondida production on planned lower grades.

Meanwhile, Iron ore production increased 5% Y/Y to 69.7 Mt, while Steelmaking coal production fell 3% Y/Y to 4.3 Mt in the quarter.

Iron ore production rose 9% sequentially, led by increased output at WAIO, thanks to improved supply chain performance.

In the first half of fiscal 2026, the company reported copper production of 984.1 Kt (flat Y/Y), while Iron ore output rose 2% Y/Y  to 133.8 Mt.

Management Commentary

Mike Henry, BHP’s CEO, said, “BHP delivered another half of very strong performance with operational records at our copper and iron ore assets. This was achieved safely and in a positive commodity price environment, with copper prices up 32% and iron ore prices 4% higher year on year.”

China’s demand for commodities continues to show resilience, underpinned by targeted policy support and robust export activity, even as growth cooled in the second half of calendar 2025, particularly across construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure spending, Henry said.

He noted that India is increasingly driving incremental demand, with strong domestic activity lifting steel consumption and accelerating copper usage. With global economic growth projected at about 3% in 2026, the outlook for commodities remains constructive.

Henry added that BHP is entering the second half of fiscal 2026 with solid operational momentum and is positioning for long-term growth through a sizeable copper development pipeline, targeting roughly 2 million tons of attributable copper production in the 2030s.

Guidance

For fiscal 2026, the company revised copper production guidance to 1,900–2,000 kt, from the previous range of 1,800–2,000 kt. Meanwhile, the company kept its iron ore production guidance at 258–269 Mt.

BHP has raised its fiscal 2026 copper production guidance, positioning the company to better benefit from record copper prices, the company said. It added that elevated prices are being supported by resilient demand alongside supply disruptions affecting several competitors.

BHP has raised its fiscal 2026 group copper production outlook, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance across its asset base, Henry said. He noted that Escondida, the company’s flagship copper operation, delivered record concentrator throughput, prompting an upward revision to the mine’s fiscal 2026 production guidance range.

Henry added that Antamina has also increased its production guidance, while Spence and Copper SA remain on track, with Copper SA posting record refined gold output. In iron ore, he said WAIO achieved record production and shipments in the first half, leaving the business well positioned ahead of the seasonally wetter third quarter.

BHP will report full second-quarter results on 17 February 2026.

BHP Price Action: BHP Group shares were down 1.63% at $63.80 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo by T. Schneider via Shutterstock

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