ICE vs Coinbase: The Race for Dominance in a 24/7 Market

The opening bell of the New York Stock Exchange is an iconic symbol of global finance. However, for a new generation of investors, market hours are an outdated concept. The distinction between traditional equities, which sleep at night, and digital assets, which trade 24/7, is evaporating. 

Legacy financial titans are moving aggressively to capture the always-on trading economy. This shift was solidified on Oct. 7, 2025, when Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) (ICE), the parent company of the NYSE, agreed to invest $1 billion in Polymarket.

This investment helped legitimize prediction markets as a viable asset class, highlighting their ability to run 24/7 without relying on traditional clearing windows. Subsequently, in mid-January 2026, ICE revealed the development of its own tokenization platform for the trading and settlement of stock transactions.

While the tokenization of stocks may appear to be a significant setback for the crypto market, a closer analysis suggests this is not a zero-sum game. Instead, it presents a compelling buying opportunity for two distinct portfolio strategies. ICE is essentially evolving into a crypto infrastructure investment for conservative investors, while Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) is solidifying a dominant position in the digital derivatives space.

Financing the Future with Legacy Cash

The primary advantage Intercontinental Exchange holds over digital-native competitors is its ability to fund aggressive expansion using cash flows from established monopolies. While startups often burn cash to grow, ICE reinvests profits from its legacy businesses to buy its way into the digital future.

This financial firepower was evident in the company's third-quarter 2025 results, released in October 2025. Net revenues reached $2.4 billion, a 3% increase year-over-year (YOY).

More importantly, the company posted $3.4 billion in operating cash flow year-to-date (YTD). 

It is this liquidity that allowed ICE to deploy $1 billion into Polymarket without straining its balance sheet or threatening its 48-cent per share dividend payout.

The Mortgage Engine Returns

For the past two years, ICE’s stock price faced headwinds from its Mortgage Technology segment. High interest rates stifled home buying, turning the mortgage business into a drag on earnings. That narrative has officially flipped.

The Mortgage Technology segment returned to profitability in the third quarter, with adjusted operating income rising 25% YOY to $224 million. As interest rates stabilize, homeowners are increasingly utilizing Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs). ICE’s MSP cloud platform creates the infrastructure lenders need to process these loans efficiently. This turnaround is critical for investors to understand, as the cash generated by processing mortgage data is now funding ICE’s entry into decentralized markets.

Energy and Interest Rates

Beyond mortgages, ICE’s core trading business is booming. The year 2025 set records for volume in commodities and interest rate products.

• Energy Markets: Total Energy open interest, or OI (the number of active contracts), rose 6% YOY, with a record 42 million futures lots open in December 2025.
• Interest Rates: As global central banks diverged on policy, volatility spiked. Total Interest Rate OI jumped 54% YOY in December.

This operational strength allows ICE to capture volume from the on-chain economy via Polymarket without needing to directly hold volatile cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet.

Coinbase: Building the Institutional Moat

While ICE expands its footprint, Coinbase has successfully transitioned from a simple retail trading app to a diversified financial utility. The fear that traditional finance will crush Coinbase ignores the massive defensive moat the company built in 2025.

The centerpiece of this defense is the $4.3 billion acquisition of Deribit, which closed in August 2025. While ICE dominates traditional futures markets like energy and interest rates, Deribit holds approximately 80% of the global market share in crypto options. This acquisition effectively grants Coinbase a monopoly on a critical sector of the digital asset market.

In the third quarter alone, the Deribit deal contributed $52 million in immediate revenue, proving the acquisition is already accretive.

Shifting to Recurring Revenue

Coinbase is no longer reliant solely on retail trading fees, which can be volatile. The company has aggressively pivoted toward stable, recurring revenue streams. The Subscription & Services segment generated $747 million in the third quarter, up 14% quarter-over-quarter.

This growth is driven by two main factors:

• Stablecoin Yields: USDC's ($USDC) market capitalization reached an all-time high of $74 billion in the third quarter. Coinbase generates revenue on the reserves backing this stablecoin, benefiting from a high-interest-rate environment.
• Base Network: The company’s Layer 2 blockchain, Base, is now the number one network by transaction volume. Unlike a traditional exchange that charges only for trades, Coinbase generates high-margin fees from on-chain activity such as gaming and payments running on Base.

Financially, Coinbase is in a strong position. The company ended the third quarter with $11.9 billion in USD resources, a massive war chest to fight pricing wars or fund further acquisitions. Management’s confidence is further evidenced by the board’s authorization of a new $2 billion share repurchase program in October 2025.

A Market Big Enough for Both

The narrative that traditional finance will kill crypto exchanges is likely incorrect. The market for 24/7 trading and digital assets is large enough to support two dominant players operating with different risk profiles. We are witnessing a convergence in which traditional assets move onto digital rails and digital assets gain institutional-grade infrastructure.

For investors, the choice between ICE and Coinbase depends on risk tolerance and investment goals:

• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is the Compounder. It offers low-volatility exposure to market digitization, backed by the massive cash flow of its energy and mortgage businesses. It is a lower-risk play that pays a dividend while venturing into prediction markets.
• Coinbase Global (COIN) is the Infrastructure Play. It offers high-growth exposure to the pure mechanics of the crypto economy, including stablecoins, Layer 2 networks, and derivatives.

Both stocks represent foundational bets on a future where markets never close. Rather than viewing them as competitors in a zero-sum game, savvy investors may view them as complementary pieces of a modern financial portfolio.

Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now?

Before you make your next trade, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis.

Our team has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and none of the big name stocks were on the list.

They believe these five stocks are the five best companies for investors to buy now...

See The Five Stocks Here

The article "ICE vs Coinbase: The Race for Dominance in a 24/7 Market" first appeared on MarketBeat.