Unveiling UPS (UPS) Q4 Outlook: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics

By Zacks Equity Research | January 22, 2026, 9:15 AM

Analysts on Wall Street project that United Parcel Service (UPS) will announce quarterly earnings of $2.22 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 19.3% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $24.01 billion, declining 5.1% from the same quarter last year.

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.1% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.

Before a company reveals its earnings, it is vital to take into account any changes in earnings projections. These revisions play a pivotal role in predicting the possible reactions of investors toward the stock. Multiple empirical studies have consistently shown a strong association between trends in earnings estimates and the short-term price movements of a stock.

While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights.

That said, let's delve into the average estimates of some UPS metrics that Wall Street analysts commonly model and monitor.

Analysts predict that the 'Revenue- International Package- Cargo and other' will reach $171.85 million. The estimate suggests a change of +5.4% year over year.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Revenue- U.S. Domestic Package- Ground' reaching $12.19 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -5.8%.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenue- Supply Chain Solutions- Other' will reach $445.95 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +1.1%.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Revenue- International Package- Export' of $3.88 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +0.1% from the prior-year quarter.

The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Total' will likely reach $21.23 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $20.60 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts forecast 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Export' to reach 1.91 million. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 1.98 million.

Analysts expect 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Domestic' to come in at 1.71 million. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 1.75 million.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Average revenue per piece - U.S. Domestic Package - Ground' at $11.53 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $10.81 .

The consensus among analysts is that 'Average revenue per piece - U.S. Domestic Package - Total' will reach $13.14 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $12.25 .

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Domestic' should come in at $8.77 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $8.18 .

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Export' should arrive at $32.39 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $31.58 .

The consensus estimate for 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Total' stands at 3.62 million. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 3.73 million.

View all Key Company Metrics for UPS here>>>

Over the past month, UPS shares have recorded returns of +7.8% versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.7% change. Based on its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), UPS will likely exhibit a performance that aligns with the overall market in the upcoming period. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

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