Here's How Eli Lilly's Oncology Drugs Are Poised Ahead of Q4 Earnings

While Eli Lilly LLY is a market leader in the GLP-1 segment, thanks to its tirzepatide medicines Mounjaro (for diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity), the company also generates a meaningful portion of revenues from its oncology franchise. In the first nine months of 2025, LLY’s oncology sales totaled $6.77 billion, representing year-over-year growth of about 9%, and accounted for around 15% of the company’s total revenue figure during the same time frame.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eli Lilly’s overall oncology portfolio sales during fourth-quarter 2025 is pegged at $2.64 billion. A significant portion of these revenues is likely to be generated from sales of the company’s blockbuster breast cancer drug, Verzenio. Sales of this drug are expected to have been driven by higher volumes due to increased demand in the United States and outside the United States, partially offset by lower pricing in the United States.

Sales of RET inhibitor Retevmo and the newer lymphoma drug Jaypirca are also expected to contribute positively to top-line growth during the quarter. However, these gains are likely to have been partially offset by lower sales of older cancer drugs like Alimta and Cyramza, which are being impacted by competition from immuno-oncology agents in the United States.

Eli Lilly secured FDA approval for its new breast cancer drug, Inluriyo (imlunestrant), in late September 2025 and was subsequently launched during the to-be-reported quarter in the United States. Investors will look out for the initial sales numbers for Inluriyo on the fourth-quarter earnings call.

As markets await another strong quarter from Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 portfolio, investors will also keep an eye on the company’s oncology unit, which is showing consistent growth fueled by innovation. This could help reassure investors that Lilly’s earnings trajectory is not solely tied to the obesity segment ahead of the fourth-quarter results on Feb. 4.

Competition in the Oncology Space

Other bigger players in the oncology space include AstraZeneca AZN, Merck MRK and Pfizer PFE.

For AstraZeneca, oncology sales now account for nearly 43% of total revenues. Sales in its oncology segment rose 16% in the first nine months of 2025. AstraZeneca’s strong oncology performance was driven by medicines, such as Tagrisso, Lynparza, Imfinzi, Calquence and Enhertu (in partnership with Daiichi Sankyo).

Merck’s key oncology medicines are PD-L1 inhibitor Keytruda and PARP inhibitor Lynparza, which it markets in partnership with AstraZeneca. Keytruda, approved for several types of cancer, alone accounted for more than 48% of Merck’s total revenues in the first nine months of 2025.

Pfizer’s oncology revenues in the first nine months of 2025 grew more than 7% on a reported basis, driven by drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination, and Padcev. The segment now accounts for over 27% of Pfizer’s overall sales.

LLY’s Stock Price, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of Eli Lilly have gained 35% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 19.1% growth. The company has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.

LLY Stock Price Movement

From a valuation standpoint, LLY stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 32.02 forward earnings, higher than 18.08 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.56.

LLY Stock Valuation

Estimates for Eli Lilly’s 2025 earnings have declined from $23.95 to $23.83 per share in the past 60 days, while estimates for 2026 earnings have improved from $33.36 to $33.41 over the same time frame.

LLY Estimate Movement

Eli Lilly currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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