Packaging Corp to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Packaging Corporation of America PKG is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 27, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.42 billion, indicating 12.9% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.45 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s fourth-quarter earnings has been unchanged in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates a year-over-year dip of 0.8%.

PKG’s Earnings Surprise History

Packaging’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in two, the average surprise being 0.3%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for Packaging Corp

Our model does not predict an earnings beat for PKG this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: PKG has an Earnings ESP of -1.84%.

Zacks Rank: PKG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped PKG’s Q4 Performance

PKG closed its previously stated deal to purchase the containerboard business of Greif, Inc GEF in early September. The Greif containerboard business includes two containerboard mills with approximately 800,000 tons of production capacity, and eight sheet feeder and corrugated plants located across the United States. The deal with Greif is expected to be accretive to the company’s earnings immediately. This is likely to have aided the Packaging segment in the to-be-reported quarter.

Our model predicts the Packaging segment’s volume to rise 11.1% year over year. The price and mix impacts for the Packaging segment are expected to have been favorable at 4.2% for the quarter, per our model. 

The estimate for the segment’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.27 billion, suggesting growth of 15.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our model estimates the segment’s operating income to be $386 million, indicating growth of 29.9% from the prior-year reported figure.

In the Paper segment, prices and mix are expected to have increased 2% year over year. We expect volume to dip 0.8% year over year. 
The estimate for the Paper segment’s revenues is pegged at $153 million for the December-end quarter, suggesting growth of 1.2% from the year-ago reported figure. The estimate for the segment’s operating income is $40.8 million, indicating 17.2% growth from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Packaging Stock's Price Performance

Over the past year, PKG shares have lost 6.3% compared with the industry’s 10.3% decrease.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Trimble Inc. TRMB, slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results soon, has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trimble’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at 96 cents per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 7.9%. TRMB has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 7.4%.

Hubbell Incorporated HUBB, slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3, has an Earnings ESP of +0.52% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hubbell’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.70 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 14.6%. Hubbell has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 8.5%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research