Higher AUM on Upbeat Markets to Drive Invesco's Q4 Earnings

Invesco IVZ is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 27, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have witnessed a rise on a year-over-year basis.

In the last quarter, IVZ’s adjusted earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. A rise in adjusted net revenues and an increase in the assets under management (AUM) balance were the positives. However, higher adjusted operating expenses hurt the results to some extent.

Invesco has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 11.35%.
 

Invesco Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Invesco Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Invesco Ltd. Quote

Invesco’s Key Q4 Estimates & Factors to Note

Per the monthly metrics data published by Invesco, its preliminary total AUM as of Dec. 31, 2025, was $2.17 trillion, up 2.1% on a sequential basis. Growth in AUM was largely driven by solid market returns and net long-term inflows. So, the company’s investment management fees are expected to have increased. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.2 billion, indicating a rise of 3.9% from the previous quarter.

Similarly, the consensus estimate for performance fees of $30.8 million indicates a significant rise from the prior quarter’s actual of $6.5 million.

The consensus estimate for service and distribution fees of $417.1 million indicates growth of 4.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for other revenues is pegged at $55.9 million, suggesting a 15.2% increase.

On the cost front, while Invesco’s cost-saving initiatives are likely to have boosted its efficiency, the rise in compensation and marketing costs is expected to have had an adverse impact on overall expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

Management expects the one-time implementation costs of Alpha to be $10-$15 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Major Q4 Developments for Invesco

In December 2025, Invesco announced that shareholders approved a proposal to reclassify Invesco QQQ into an open-end exchange-traded fund (ETF), enabling it to earn revenues and profits instead of just recouping marketing costs. 

Additionally, IVZ partnered with LGT Capital Partners, a leading privately held global specialist in alternative investing, to boost private markets access for U.S. wealth and retirement investors. Together, the firms intend to create a multi-alternative private markets offering, starting with a focus on the U.S. wealth and retirement segments. By leveraging their combined strengths, the partnership aims to make private markets more accessible through robust portfolio solutions and better investor education.

What Our Model Predicts for IVZ

According to our proven model, the chances of Invesco beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it doesn’t have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Invesco is -0.80%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Invesco’s Q4 Earnings & Sales Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Invesco’s earnings of 57 cents has remained unchanged over the past seven days. However, the figure indicates a rise of 9.6% from the year-ago quarter. 

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $1.25 billion, suggesting an increase of 8.3%.

Invesco’s Peers Worth Considering

Here are a couple of IVZ’s peer stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

SEI Investments SEIC is scheduled to report quarterly results on Jan. 28. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.55% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SEI Investments’ quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at $1.34.

The Earnings ESP for Blackstone BX is +0.46% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 29.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Blackstone’s quarterly earnings has been revised marginally lower to $1.51.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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