Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Exxon Mobil?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Exxon Mobil (XOM) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.67 a share, just four days from its upcoming earnings release on January 30, 2026.
Exxon Mobil's Earnings ESP sits at +2.29%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.67 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.64. XOM is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
XOM is just one of a large group of Oils and Energy stocks with a positive ESP figure. BP (BP) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
BP, which is readying to report earnings on February 10, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.58 a share, and BP is 15 days out from its next earnings report.
For BP, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.57 is +2.47%.
XOM and BP's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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