AJG Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJG’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.58 billion, indicating 33.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.38 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJG’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved south 2.4% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 11.7%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for AJG

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Arthur J. Gallagher  this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This is not the case, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: Arthur J. Gallagher has an Earnings ESP of -1.03%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.35 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.38. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Price and EPS Surprise

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. price-eps-surprise | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Quote

Zacks Rank: AJG carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Factors Likely to Shape Q4 Results of AJG

Better performances in both segments are likely to aid AJG’s fourth-quarter results. New business, solid retention and higher renewal premiums across its business lines are likely to have benefited the fourth-quarter performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fees is pegged at $1 billion, indicating an increase of 17.1% from the prior-year period’s reported number. The consensus mark for commissions is pegged at $2.2 billion, implying 49.1% growth from the prior-year period’s reported number.

Excellent client retention, strong new business production, and increases in customer business activity are expected to have benefited the Risk management segment. AJG expects about 7% organic growth and margins around 21% in the to-be-reported quarter.  

Continued strong customer retention, higher new business generation and increasing renewal premiums, an improvement in interest income earned on own and fiduciary funds are expected to have favored the Brokerage segment. AJG expects organic growth of around 5% in the to-be-reported quarter.

Increased commissions and fees, higher supplemental revenues and improved contingent revenues and investment income, as well as strategic mergers and acquisitions, are likely to have driven the top line in the to-be-reported quarter. 

Total expenses are expected to have increased mainly because of higher compensation, reimbursements, interest, amortization and changes in estimated acquisition earnout payables.  

Stocks to Consider

Here are some insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +6.93% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.45, indicating a year-over-year increase of 8.4%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. KNSL has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.30, indicating a year-over-year increase of 14.7%.

KNSL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR has an Earnings ESP of +17.38% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $10.19, indicating a year-over-year increase of 26.4%.

RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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