Will Nasdaq's Beat Streak Continue This Earnings Season?

Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NDAQ’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.37 billion, indicating 11.5% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 91 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NDAQ’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved up 1.1% in the past 60 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 19.7%.

What Our Quantitative Model States

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nasdaq this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold).

Earnings ESP: Nasdaq has an Earnings ESP of +0.45% at present. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 92 cents is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 91 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Nasdaq, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Nasdaq, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Nasdaq, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Nasdaq currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors to Consider

Continued organic revenue growth, new sales, and an increase in Financial Crime Management Technology revenues are likely to have aided Nasdaq’s fourth-quarter performance.

Non-trading revenues are likely to have benefited from improved results in Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services businesses.

Higher subscription revenues from new sales and price increases to existing clients, and new client contracts are likely to have aided the Financial Crime Management Technology business. 

Increase in trade management services business, higher subscription revenues from new sales and price increases to existing clients, as well as revenues from new clients from the Calypso business, and upsells in the market technology business are likely to have aided the Capital Markets Technology business.

New listings, an increase in data net sales and usage, and pricing, higher average AUM in exchange-traded products linked to Nasdaq indices, eVestment, and Nasdaq Alternative Data sales growth are expected to have aided performance at the Capital Access Platforms division. 

An increase in professional & contract services expenses, as well as technology and communication infrastructure, marketing and advertising, depreciation and amortization and regulatory, merger and strategic initiatives is expected to have increased total expenses for the to-be-reported quarter.

Nevertheless, share buybacks in the to-be-reported quarter are anticipated to have provided a boost to the bottom line.

Q4 Volumes

Nasdaq reported impressive volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025. The U.S. equity options volume increased 25.3% year over year to 1.1 billion contracts. European options and futures volume increased 13.3% year over year to 16.1 million contracts.

Revenues per contract for the U.S. equity options declined 16.7% year over year to 10 cents, while the same for European options and futures increased 8.7% to 62 cents.

Under its cash equities, Nasdaq’s U.S. matched equity volume in the fourth quarter grossed 171.3 billion shares, up 36.8% from the prior-year quarter’s level. European equity volume increased 16.7% year over year to $231 billion. 

In the fourth quarter, there were 4,487 listed companies on the Nasdaq compared with 4,481 in the year-ago period. Total listings increased 6.7% year over year to 5,599.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three finance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE has an Earnings ESP of +9.25% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.69, indicating a year-over-year increase of 28.1%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CBOE’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing in one.

CME Group Inc. CME has an Earnings ESP of +0.75% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is $2.73, representing a 8.3% year-over-year increase. 

CME’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

S&P Global Inc. SPGI has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.30, indicating a year-over-year increase of 14%.

SPGI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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