Progressive Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

The Progressive Corporation PGR is expected to witness an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $21.9 billion, indicating 7.9% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.44 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s fourth-quarter earnings witnessed no movement in the past seven days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 8.8%.

Decent Earnings Surprise History

Progressive’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, the average surprise being 1.84%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for PGR

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: PGR has an Earnings ESP of +0.69%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.47 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.44.

The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Progressive Corporation Quote

Zacks Rank: PGR carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape PGR's Q4 Results

Fourth-quarter revenues are likely to have been supported by higher premiums, increased net investment income, and stronger fees and service revenues. Results are expected to benefit from improved performance in both personal auto products and commercial lines.

A strong product lineup, market-leading position, and solid performance in the Vehicle and Property segments—along with healthy policies in force and strong retention— are likely to have supported net premiums earned. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $20.9 billion, indicating a 9.3% increase from the year-ago reported number.   

Progressive’s personal auto business is likely to have benefited from growth in both new and renewal applications, driven mainly by higher advertising spend, competitive pricing, and agency incentive compensation programs. Policy growth is likely to have been aided by both the agency and direct auto channels. The consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force is pegged at 26.1 million.

A larger invested asset base is likely to have aided improvement in net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $964 million, indicating an increase of 22% from the year-ago reported number.  

The insurer is likely to have benefited from pretax net realized gains on securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $84.5 million.  

Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have increased expenses.  The consensus mark for expense ratio is pegged at 21.04.

Prudent underwriting, coupled with a not-so-active cat environment, is likely to have aided improvement in the combined ratio. The consensus mark for combined ratio is pegged at 88.6.

Stocks to Consider

Some P&C insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Axis Capital Holdings AXS has an Earnings ESP of +2.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.97 per share, indicating no year-over-year change.

AXS’ earnings beat estimates in the last four reported quarters. 

RenaissanceRe RNR has an Earnings ESP of +17.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $10.19 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 26.4%

RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

Chubb Limited CB has an Earnings ESP of +1.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.55 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 8.8%.

CB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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