Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is likely to focus more on FSD, robotaxis, and AI, and less on electric vehicles when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results after market close on Wednesday.
Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and the key items to watch.
Tesla Q4 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect Tesla to report fourth-quarter revenue of $24.90 billion, down from $25.71 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters and in four of the last 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect Tesla to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of 40 cents, down from 73 cents per share in last year's fourth quarter.
The company met expectations for earnings per share in the last reported quarter and has beaten earnings in only three of the last 10 quarters overall.
What Tesla Analysts Are Saying
While Tesla will report fourth quarter revenue, earnings per share and other key financial figures, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said all eyes will be on the company's robotaxi progress and stabilized demand.
The analyst maintained an Outperform rating and price target of $600 ahead of the earnings.
Ives said Tesla's story revolves around the AI growth from autonomous vehicles and robotics initiatives going forward.
"The major focus on the conference call will be the Robotaxi rollout across the U.S. including the removal of safety drivers across its fleet,” Ives said.
The analyst said investors may be caught at a crossroads of how quickly the "Robotaxi era" will take.
"We expect an accelerated Robotaxi launch across the U.S. with importantly volume production of Cybercabs starting in the April/May timeframe with Musk expected to address the rollout of Cybercab and Optimus on the call."
Ives said Tesla CEO Elon Musk is driving Tesla into its next growth stage, acting as the "wartime CEO."
"We continue to strongly believe the most important chapter in Tesla's growth story is now beginning with the AI era now here."
The analyst said Tesla's autonomous story is worth $1 trillion over the next few years, a value that could get unlocked in the coming months. Ives said Tesla could hit a market capitalization of $2 trillion in 2026, with a bull case of $3 trillion by the end of the year.
"We believe Tesla will own ~70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade as no other company can match the scale and scope of Tesla coupled with its broadening AI footprint."
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney highlighted Tesla's partnership with insurance company Lemonade in a recent analyst note.
The analyst maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla with a price target of $420.
Delaney said one key debate is whether FSD and robotaxis can help Tesla scale its operations more quickly and ultimately sell more vehicles.
"While we continue to believe that Tesla will grow its FSD and robotaxi operations and business over time, we also expect competition to gate the degree of profit growth," Delaney said.
Key Items to Watch for Tesla Shareholders
Tesla lets shareholders submit questions and vote on their favorites, which might be answered during the quarterly conference call.
A top shareholder question for Tesla management is whether investors in the EV company will get priority access to the SpaceX IPO in 2025. If that question is answered on Wednesday, Tesla shares could see volatility.
“You once said: loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?” the leading question reads.
The question is likely aimed at past comments from Musk, in which he said he would always prioritize Tesla shareholders first if SpaceX or Starlink ever went public.
This could be an important question if answered for Tesla’s share price as some investors may see owning TSLA stock as a way to get early access to SpaceX.
If Musk can find a way to reward long-time Tesla shareholders with early access, that would be the likely approach, rather than giving all Tesla shareholders first access.
Outside of the SpaceX IPO query, here are the other current leading vote getters for potential questions to be asked during Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings call.
- “When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?”
- “What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?”
- “Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has this integration impacted factory efficiency or output?”
- “Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.”
The other Tesla questions mainly center on the future growth items of Tesla, including FSD, robotaxis and the Optimus Bot. This comes as some Tesla analysts are saying that delivery figures from Tesla matter less going forward.
Tesla previously reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,227 units, down 16% year-over-year.
Given the decline in deliveries, Tesla will likely focus its earnings report and earnings call on future growth items, which could mean some of shareholders’ top questions get answered.
Tesla Stock Price Action
Tesla stock was down 0.99% to $430.91 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $214.25 to $498.82. Tesla stock is up 9% over the last 52 weeks.
Photo: Alan Mazzocco from Shutterstock
