Why UnitedHealth Group Stock Just Bounced Back

Shares of UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) stock crashed nearly 20% yesterday after reporting a tiny sales miss in its Q4 earnings report -- and a gigantic disappointment on profits.

Although UnitedHealth's non-GAAP earnings hit analyst targets, when calculated under generally accepted accounting principles, UnitedHealth's GAAP earnings for Q4 2025 basically vanished -- down nearly 100% year over year at just $0.01 per share. But here's the good news:

UnitedHealth stock is already bouncing back today.

Image source: Getty Images.

Dead cat bounce?

Shares of the giant health insurance company are up 4% as of 11:55 a.m. ET Wednesday. That's barely a bandage on yesterday's gargantuan losses, but it's better than another decline.

It's also a bit surprising considering how Wall Street analysts are reacting to the company's earnings (and to a related report that the U.S. government will freeze Medicare Advantage rates in 2027). According to the latest data from TheFly.com, no fewer than seven separate analysts have cut their price targets on UnitedHealth stock. But here's the thing:

Every single one of these analysts thinks UnitedHealth stock is worth more than the $294 it costs today.

And almost all of them think UnitedHealth stock is a buy.

Is UnitedHealth stock a buy?

Of the analysts who made price moves yesterday, Bank of America is the most pessimistic, valuing UnitedHealth stock at $315 a share. Cantor Fitzgerald, in contrast, predicts UnitedHealth will hit $440 within a year -- a 50% profit from where it trades today! -- with the other analysts somewhere in the middle

Are these analysts right?

When I look at UnitedHealth stock trading for just 16.7 times forward earnings, paying a 3.1% dividend yield, and expected to triple its profits over the next five years, I kind of think they might be.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends UnitedHealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.