Will Growth in Total Investment Income Continue for ARCC in 2026?

Ares Capital Corporation’s ARCC total investment income has shown an overall upward bias over the last few years, although the trend has not been consistently positive on a quarter-to-quarter basis. While the metric declined in 2020, it saw a five-year (2019-2024) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4%, with the uptrend continuing in the first nine months of 2025.

Growth was primarily driven by a rise in demand for personalized financing solutions, which boosted investment income. Moreover, ARCC has been benefiting from a large and diversified investment portfolio, steady deployment of capital into middle-market loans and a healthy investment backlog.

In 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019, the company originated $15.1 billion, $6 billion, $9.9 billion, $15.6 billion, $6.7 billion and $7.3 billion, respectively, in gross investment commitments to new and existing portfolio companies. In the first nine months of 2025, the company originated $10 billion of gross investment commitments.

As of Sept. 30, 2025, Ares Capital had total investments (fair value) of $28.7 billion, of which 23.2% was in software & services, and 11.9% in healthcare equipment & services. Other major investment areas were commercial & professional services (11.4%), financial services (10.5%), and insurance services (5.9%).

Going forward, a few headwinds could limit the pace or consistency of investment income growth. Changes in interest rates, competitive pressures and periodic declines in fee income could weigh on total investment income in 2026 to some extent. However, given the regulatory changes and consistently rising demand for customized financing, ARCC is expected to witness an overall increase in total investment income this year. The company’s focus on predominantly floating-rate assets positions it to generate solid income in a high-rate environment, while diversification across industries and income sources, including structuring and other fee income, helps stabilize revenues over time.

How Are ARCC’s Peers Positioned?

Let us see how ARCC’s two close peers, Hercules Capital, Inc. HTGC and Main Street Capital Corporation MAIN, fare in terms of total investment income.

Hercules Capital’s total investment income witnessed a CAGR of 13% over the last five years (2019-2024), with the upward momentum continuing in the first nine months of 2025.

Hercules Capital is a small participant in a market with huge growth prospects. In 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, the company closed $2.6 billion, $3.1 billion, $2.2 billion and $2.7 billion, respectively, in new debt and equity commitments. In the first nine months of 2025, HTGC closed $2.87 billion in gross debt and equity commitments. Similar to ARCC, Hercules Capital’s total investment income growth is expected to continue in the near term, driven by the rise in demand for customized financing and a robust deal pipeline. 

Main Street’s total investment income has witnessed a five-year (2019-2024) CAGR of 17.3%, with the rising trend continuing in the first nine months of 2025. The increase was primarily driven by a rise in demand for personalized financing solutions.

Main Street is also expected to continue to witness a rise in total investment income, given the regulatory changes and diverse investment pipelines, partially offset by lower interest income on floating-rate debt investments due to relatively lower rates.

Ares Capital’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

ARCC shares have lost 10% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 11.1% decline.

From a valuation standpoint, Ares Capital currently trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 10.40X, above the industry average of 9.18X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ares Capital’s 2025 and 2026 earnings indicates year-over-year declines of 14.2% and 2.2%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for both years have been unchanged.

Currently, ARCC carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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