Can Specialty and International Momentum Support Cencora's Q1 Results?

Cencora COR is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 4, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.32%. COR’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 5.51%.

Cencora’s Q1 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $85.97 billion, up 5.5% from the prior-year quarter’s level. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $4.05 per share, indicating an improvement of 8.6% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Factors to Consider Before COR Reports

Cencora is expected to deliver strong performance in the fiscal first quarter, supported by sustained pharmaceutical utilization trends and the growing contribution from specialty-focused assets, even as certain headwinds temper growth. The company exited fiscal 2025 with strong momentum, highlighted by double-digit adjusted EPS and operating income growth, largely driven by its U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment and the integration of Retina Consultants of America (“RCA”). The trend is likely to have continued in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

Revenue growth is likely to reflect healthy underlying drug volumes. However, the outsized tailwinds from GLP-1s are likely to moderate. Margin performance should have remained favorable, supported by mix benefits from specialty distribution, MSO-related services and wraparound offerings, partially offset by higher interest expense tied to acquisition financing.

U.S. Healthcare Solutions

The U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment should have once again been the primary earnings driver. Continued strength in specialty distribution across physician practices and health systems is expected to have offset the loss of an oncology customer. Meanwhile, RCA’s ongoing contribution is likely to have boosted sales and margins.

Specialty utilization, particularly in Part B drugs, along with growth in MSO platforms, such as RCA and OneOncology, should have continued to support above-trend operating income growth. These platforms not only drive drug volume but also enhance margins through higher-value services such as GPO participation, clinical trial infrastructure and revenue cycle management. As a result, U.S. segment operating income growth is expected to have outpaced revenue growth, reinforcing the margin inflection management has emphasized on its fourth-quarter earnings call.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the U.S. Healthcare segment sales is pegged at $76.72 billion for the fiscal first quarter.

International Healthcare Solutions

The segment reported 8% growth for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. The trend is likely to have continued in the fiscal first quarter. Moreover, on its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call, management guided 6-8% growth for International Healthcare Solutions segment during fiscal 2026, implying continued growth for the segment.

European distribution and global specialty logistics (including World Courier) have shown signs of stabilization, with improving shipment volumes and new 3PL contract wins supporting revenues. This trend is likely to have continued in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the International segment sales is pegged at $7.45 billion for the fiscal first quarter.

Cencora, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cencora, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cencora, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cencora this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is 0.00% for COR. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some stocks from the broader medical space worth considering, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Masimo MASI has an Earnings ESP of +8.04% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26.

MASI’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 12.39%. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, MASI’s fourth-quarter EPS is expected to decline 20.6% from the year-ago reported figure.

Cardinal Health CAH has an Earnings ESP of +1.73% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The company is set to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 5.

CAH’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 9.36%. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, CAH’s fiscal second-quarter EPS is expected to improve 20.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

DexCom DXCM has an Earnings ESP of +4.75% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12.

DXCM’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 0.17%. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, DXCM’s fourth-quarter EPS is expected to gain 44.4% from the year-ago reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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