DOW Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss on Lower Prices

Dow Inc. DOW recorded a loss (on a reported basis) of $1,543 million or $2.15 per share for fourth-quarter 2025, wider than a loss of $53 million or 8 cents per share a year ago. The bottom line was hurt by lower prices and volumes.

On an adjusted basis (barring one-time items), DOW logged a loss of 34 cents for the reported quarter. The figure was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 46 cents.

Dow recorded net sales of $9,460 million for the quarter, down 9% year over year. It missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,487.1 million. Lower sales across all segments adversely impacted the top line.

Volume fell 2% year over year, largely due to declines in the Packaging & Specialty Plastics unit resulting from lower merchant olefins sales in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India (EMEAI). Local prices fell 8% year over year and also declined 3% sequentially.

Dow Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Dow Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Dow Inc. Quote

Dow’s Segment Highlights

Packaging & Specialty Plastics: The division’s sales fell 11% year over year to $4,744 million in the reported quarter. The figure missed the consensus estimate of $4,834 million. Volume fell 2% year over year on lower merchant olefins sales in EMEAI, resulting from the idling of a cracker. Local prices fell 9% year over year, primarily due to lower downstream polymer pricing.

Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure: Sales for the unit were down 9% year over year to $2,688 million. The figure beat the consensus estimate of $2,653 million. Local prices fell 9% year over year, indicating reductions in both businesses. Volume decreased 1% due to declines in polyurethanes and construction chemicals.

Performance Materials & Coatings: Revenues from the division fell 6% year over year to $1,852 million. The figure was ahead of the consensus estimate of $1,836 million. Volume fell 2% year over year due to lower volumes in coatings and performance monomers. Local prices fell 4% year over year due to losses in both businesses.

DOW’s Financials

Cash flow from operating activities for continuing operations was $298 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of $513 million from the same period last year. This decline was primarily due to lower earnings. For the full year, cash flow from operating activities for continuing operations was $1.1 billion compared with $2.9 billion in 2024.
 
Shareholder returns through dividends for the quarter amounted to $251 million and $1.5 billion for full-year 2025.

Dow’s Outlook

Dow noted that it remains committed to delivering near-term cost savings amid the industry downturn. It has launched the “Transform to Outperform” initiative to improve productivity, reduce complexity, streamline its end-to-end processes and enable improved returns. The plan targets at least $2 billion near-term operating EBITDA improvement, with two-thirds of the benefits expected to be realized from productivity improvements. The benefits will be accretive to DOW’s earlier announced $1 billion cost savings program.

DOW Stock’s Price Performance

DOW’s shares are down 27.9% in a year compared with the Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry’s 20.8% decline.

DOW’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

DOW currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space include Albemarle Corporation ALB, Coeur Mining, Inc. CDE and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM.

Albemarle is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of 54 cents. ALB beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing it in one, with the average earnings surprise being 35.3%. ALB carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Coeur is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 18. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CDE’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 33 cents. CDE beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last two quarters and missed twice, with the average earnings surprise being 106.6%. CDE currently carries a Zacks Rank #1. 

Avino Silver is slated to report fourth-quarter results on March 11. The consensus estimate for ASM’s earnings is pegged at 6 cents. ASM, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 150%. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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