Gold is back in macro-dominance mode—and JPMorgan is framing the sector as a tale of two miners trading at very different prices for very different reasons. With bullion up roughly 91% year-over-year and miners nearly tripling, the divergence between Barrick Mining Corp (NYSE:B) and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (NYSE:AEM) is now a valuation story as much as an operational one.
Premium Operator Vs. Discounted Giant
JPMorgan analyst Bennett Moore calls Agnico Eagle the "premier player in the space," citing operational execution, a clean cost profile, and a low-risk geographic footprint. That consistency commands a premium. AEM currently trades at a roughly 37% premium to peers—right in line with its historical multiple.
Barrick, by contrast, is the bigger global beast with a "world-class reserve base" and nearer-term organic growth potential. But it also carries baggage: jurisdictional risk, a management transition, and a mixed track record. The market is pricing those risks aggressively—Barrick trades at just 4.3x FY27 EV/EBITDA and about a 22% discount to peers, versus being roughly in-line historically.
Catalysts Vs. Certainty
Moore sees Barrick's discount as potentially overdone, especially with company-specific catalysts on the horizon:
- Loulo-Gounkoto restart or sale
- Fourmile resource update
- Potential North America value unlocks.
In JPMorgan's framework, that upside justifies an Overweight rating and a $68 price target.
Agnico, meanwhile, is a long-duration growth story, with its next major leg more of a 2030s narrative. With valuation already "relatively full," JPMorgan prefers waiting for a better entry point—hence the Neutral rating despite acknowledging Agnico's best-in-class status.
The Macro Gold Backdrop
Both miners sit on extraordinary profitability: JPMorgan models EBITDA margins around 75% into FY26–27, with strong free cash flow supporting rising capex and shareholder returns.
The macro tailwind is just as important—central bank buying, ETF inflows, and a structural rethink of gold's role in the financial system underpin a bullish long-term price outlook.
AEM is priced like a flawless operator. Barrick is priced like a geopolitical problem. If the risks normalize, that 22% discount could be the real trade.
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