Will Origination & Servicing Strains Drag Rithm Capital's Q4 Earnings?

Global asset manager Rithm Capital Corp. RITM is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 54 cents per shareon revenues of $1.37 billion. 

The fourth-quarter earnings estimate decreased by 3 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates 10% decline from the year-ago level. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year fall of 34.9%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rithm Capital’s revenues is pegged at $4.46 billion, implying a decrease of 14.8% year over year. Nevertheless, the consensus mark for the 2025 EPS is pegged at $2.14, indicating 1.9% year-over-year growth.

Rithm Capital beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters and met once, with the average surprise being 13.7%.

Rithm Capital Corp. Price and EPS Surprise

Rithm Capital Corp. price-eps-surprise | Rithm Capital Corp. Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for Rithm Capital

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for RITM this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

RITM has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

What’s Shaping Rithm Capital’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total asset management revenues is pegged at $277 million, up 3.2% year over year. The consensus mark for Asset Management pre-tax income indicates 57.5% increase from a year ago.

The growing profitability of its Newrez business is likely to have aided its Origination & Servicing segment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter net gain on originated residential mortgage loans indicates a 5.3% year-over-year jump.

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter interest income indicates a 0.6% year-over-year decline. Also, the consensus mark for other revenues indicates a 17.3% year-over-year decline. The consensus estimate for net servicing revenues is pegged at $409.4 million, signaling a massive decline of 62.6% from a year ago. This is expected to significantly affect the top line in the fourth quarter.

Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Origination & Servicing pre-tax income suggests a 48.1% year-over-year decline, making an earnings beat uncertain. Nevertheless, its hedging strategies are likely to have provided some protection.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Rithm Capital, here are some companies from the broader Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE has an Earnings ESP of +5.09% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cboe Global’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $2.78 per share, a 32.4% jump from a year ago. The consensus estimate for Cboe Global’s revenues is pegged at $633.3 million, a 20.7% year-over-year jump.

Credicorp Ltd. BAP has an Earnings ESP of +3.41% and a Zacks Rank #2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Credicorp’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $6.55 per share, which remained stable over the past week and indicates 74.2% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for Credicorp’s revenues is pegged at $1.79 billion, a 26.7% increase from a year ago.

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. BAM has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Brookfield Asset’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 42 cents per share, which indicates 5% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for Brookfield Asset’s revenues is pegged at $1.39 billion, a 12.6% increase from a year ago.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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