Cummins Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Cummins Inc. CMI is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at $5.36 per share and $8.15 billion, respectively.

For the fiscal fourth quarter, the consensus estimate for CMI’s earnings per share has moved up 2 cents in the past 30 days. Its bottom-line estimates imply a rise of 3.9% from the year-ago reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 3.5%.

CMI surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 20.24%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Cummins Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cummins Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cummins Inc. Quote

Q3 Highlights

Cummins reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $5.59 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.73 but slightly fell from $5.60 recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Cummins’ revenues totaled $8.32 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.06 billion but declined from $8.46 billion recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Things to Note

Cummins is seeing strong growth in its Distribution and Power Systems segments. Rising demand from data centers and mission-critical applications is driving these gains. The company anticipated continued solid demand for its Power Systems and Distribution businesses throughout the fourth quarter. 

However, Cummins faces headwinds from weakening North America heavy- and medium-duty truck demand, pressuring Engine segment revenues and profits. Cummins expected engine shipments to on-highway customers to drop another 15% in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. The escalating R&D and engineering expenses in the Accelera segment continue to hurt the firm’s margins. 

While robust growth in the Distribution and Power Systems segments is likely to have bolstered the prospects of Cummins in the to-be-reported quarter, the performance of Engine and Accelera units is expected to have acted as headwinds.

Let’s see what our model estimates say about the expected fourth-quarter revenues and EBITDA performance of each segment. 

Our estimate for Engine revenues is pegged at $2.38 billion, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 12.4%. We expect revenues from Power System to be $1.9 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 9.2%. Our estimate for Component revenues is pegged at $2.3 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 13.1%. We expect revenues from the Distribution segment to be $3.13 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 2%. We expect revenues from the Accelera segment to be $100.7 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 0.7%. 

Our estimate for EBITDA from the Engine segment is pegged at $320.8 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 12.6%. We expect EBITDA from Power System to be $415.2 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 32.2%. Our estimate for EBITDA from the Component segment is pegged at $316.7 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 12.3%. We expect EBITDA from the Distribution segment to be $439 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 9.8%. We expect negative EBITDA from the Accelera segment of $173.1 million, suggesting improvement from the negative EBITDA of $431 reported in year-ago period.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cummins this time around, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: CMI has an Earnings ESP of -3.72%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged below the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Cummins currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

BorgWarner BWA is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.61% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BorgWarner’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.16 per share and $3.51 billion, respectively. BorgWarner surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 11.03%.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.07% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at 69 cents per share and $1.26 billion. RIVN surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 12.42%.

Magna International Inc. MGA is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 13. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.87% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Magna’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.81 per share and $10.48 billion, respectively. MGA surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 7.67%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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