Is a Beat in Store for Chubb Limited This Earnings Season?

Chubb Limited CB is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CB’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $15.1 billion, indicating 5.8% growth from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $6.58 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CB’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved up 2.7% in the past 30 days. The figure suggests a year-over-year increase of 9.3%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for CB

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CB this time. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Chubb Limited has an Earnings ESP of +0.84%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $6.64 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.58. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Chubb Limited Price and EPS Surprise

Chubb Limited price-eps-surprise | Chubb Limited Quote

Zacks Rank: Chubb Limited currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape Q4 Results

Its fourth-quarter top line is likely to have benefited from investment results as well as solid premium revenue growth, driven by a compelling product portfolio, strong retention and new business across most product lines as well as geographic presence. Its digital and AI efforts are expected to add to the upside.

The high net-worth personal lines business is likely to have benefited from strong new business and retention, including positive rates and exposure increases across all lines.

Premiums at Life Insurance are expected to have gained from strong new business in North Asia, notably in Huatai, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $13.4 billion. We expect net premiums earned to be $13.2 billion, indicating a 4.8% year-over-year increase.

Net investment income is likely to have benefited from higher average invested assets and higher reinvestment rates on fixed maturities. Chubb Limited expects quarterly adjusted net investment income to be $1.775 billion in the fourth quarter. We expect net investment income to be $1.775 billion in the to-be-reported quarter.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.8 billion.

Better pricing and increased exposure, coupled with prudent underwriting, are expected to have aided underwriting profitability, which is expected to have led to an improvement in the combined ratio. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the combined ratio is pegged at 83.4.
Expenses are expected to have increased because of higher policy acquisition costs, administrative expenses and interest expenses. We estimate the metric to be $11.4 billion.

Nevertheless, share buybacks in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have aided the bottom line.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three P&C insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat: 

RenaissanceRe RNR has an Earnings ESP of +6.64% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $10.59, indicating a year-over-year increase of 31.4%. 

RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, while missing in one.

The Hanover Insurance THG has an Earnings ESP of +111.15% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.08, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 4.5%.

THG’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +3.47% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $9.82, indicating a year-over-year increase of 28%. 

ALL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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