Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi kept a Neutral/Sector Perform view on Comcast Corp (NASDAQ:CMCSA), saying the company's fourth-quarter results met expectations but failed to show clear signs of a turnaround.
The analyst reduced the price forecast from $37.50 to $35.25.
Broadband Competition Pressures ARPU And EBITDA
He said broadband pressures remain intense as Comcast faces aggressive competition from fiber providers and fixed wireless access (FWA).
Yaghi noted that Comcast's decision to avoid price hikes and lean into lower-priced plans is starting to weigh on broadband ARPU, a trend he expects to worsen before improving.
Because of this, the analyst trimmed his price forecast slightly and said it is still too early to call a definitive recovery, especially with Connectivity & Platforms EBITDA pressure likely to linger for several more quarters.
He pointed out that Comcast lost 181,000 broadband subscribers in the quarter, a steeper decline than last year, as it continues migrating customers to a simplified pricing and packaging model that includes a free wireless line and a five-year price guarantee.
While this strategy has helped reduce voluntary churn and boost adoption of higher speeds, Yaghi said it has also increased financial strain.
The analyst highlighted modest 1% year-over-year broadband ARPU growth, which, alongside higher customer experience investments and marketing costs, contributed to a 4% year-over-year drop in Connectivity & Platforms EBITDA.
Recovery Pushed To 2H26 As Content And Parks Diverge
Looking ahead, he expects conditions to deteriorate before improving.
Yaghi forecasts ARPU turning negative and EBITDA pressure peaking around the second quarter of 2026 as Comcast continues to forgo pricing actions and expand free wireless offers.
The analyst sees a potential recovery in the second half of 2026, when the company laps the new pricing model and begins converting most free wireless lines into paying customers.
On the content side, he said EBITDA in Studios and Media weighed on results.
Studios faced tough year-over-year comparisons against a stronger prior film slate, along with timing issues around licensing deals and higher marketing spending.
Media EBITDA also declined, largely due to the cost of newly acquired NBA rights.
Yaghi said these headwinds were partly offset by strong Theme Parks performance, driven by higher attendance and guest spending, including at Epic Universe.
For 2026, the analyst expects Theme Parks to remain a bright spot and sees improvement at Peacock as the streaming platform scales and monetization improves, helping offset ongoing investments, including the first full year of NBA-related costs.
He projected 2026 revenue of $125.41 billion and EPS of $3.72.
CMCSA Price Action: Comcast shares were up 0.62% at $29.41 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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