Altria (MO) Eyes Second-Half Profit Lift From U.S. Tobacco Tax Rebate

Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) is included among the 14 High Yield Dividend Stocks with Sustainable Payouts.

A January 29 Reuters report said Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) expects profit to improve in the second half of the year by using a US tax rebate tied to higher cigarette imports and exports. The update came after the company narrowly missed fourth-quarter 2025 profit estimates on January 29.

Altria said its full-year 2026 profit outlook still sits ahead of analyst expectations. That confidence is partly tied to a tax provision known as the “double duty drawback.” Tobacco companies that export products outside the U.S. can reclaim federal excise taxes paid on cigarettes sold domestically, as long as similar products are shipped overseas. The exported cigarettes themselves do not need to have been taxed.

Until now, Altria has largely been unable to benefit from this provision. Unlike rivals such as British American Tobacco, the company does not sell cigarettes directly outside the United States. That dynamic is starting to change.

The Marlboro maker is working with international partners, including Korea’s KT&G, to expand cigarette exports through arrangements such as contract manufacturing.

Altria’s finance chief Salvatore Mancuso, who is set to become CEO in May, told Reuters it would be foolish not to use the provision and remain at a competitive disadvantage. The shift comes as traditional tobacco volumes continue to decline. Altria has been working to offset that pressure by building revenue from newer products, including its On! nicotine pouch brand. Progress has been uneven, with competitors taking share in key categories.

For 2026, Altria expects adjusted earnings of $5.56 to $5.72 per share. The midpoint of that range is above the analyst consensus estimate of $5.58, according to LSEG data.

Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) operates a portfolio of tobacco products for US consumers aged 21 and older. Its business is centered on smokeable products and oral tobacco offerings.

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