For most investors, how much a stock's price changes over time is important. Not only can it impact your investment portfolio, but it can also help you compare investment results across sectors and industries.
Another factor that can influence investors is FOMO, or the fear of missing out, especially with tech giants and popular consumer-facing stocks.
What if you'd invested in Petrobras (PBR) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to PBR for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?
Petrobras' Business In-Depth
With that in mind, let's take a look at Petrobras' main business drivers.
Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., or Petrobras S.A., is the largest integrated energy firm in Brazil and one of the largest in Latin America. The company’s activities include: exploration, exploitation and production of oil from reservoir wells, shale and other rocks, as well as refining, processing, trading and transportation of oil and oil products, natural gas and other fluid hydrocarbons, in addition to other energy-related activities. The company operates in five segments:
Exploration and Production (E&P): This segment – which makes up around 40% of Petrobras' total sales – includes the company’s domestic E&P operations, mostly located in the offshore Campos Basin, which is Brazil's largest oil region and is one of the most prolific oil and gas areas in South America.
Refining, Transportation and Marketing: This segment, which makes up more than half of Petrobras' sales, houses the company’s domestic refining, transportation and marketing assets. Petrobras owns and operates 12 refineries in Brazil and 3 refineries outside Brazil.
Distribution: This segment is engaged in the distribution of oil products, fuel alcohol, and natural gas to retail, commercial, and industrial customers throughout Brazil.
Gas and Power: This segment is engaged in gas transmission and distribution, electric power generation using natural gas and renewable energy sources and biofuels operations in Brazil. Petrobras has a total of 7,028 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity.
Biofuels: The unit deals with renewable energy programs, including biodiesel, agricultural supplies, vegetable oil extraction and ethanol. Petrobras provides more than 10% of Brazil’s biodiesel and also acts as a market catalyst by securing and blending biodiesel supplies and providing these to smaller distributors in addition to the company’s own service stations.
At the end of 2024, Petrobras had net debt of $52,240 million. The company ended the year with cash and cash equivalents of $3.271 million. For full-year 2024, free cash flow came in at $23,318 million.
Bottom Line
While anyone can invest, building a lucrative investment portfolio takes research, patience, and a little bit of risk. If you had invested in Petrobras ten years ago, you're probably feeling pretty good about your investment today.
According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in February 2016 would be worth $4,420.75, or a gain of 342.07%, as of February 2, 2026, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases.
Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 257.64% and gold's return of 311.65% over the same time frame.
Going forward, analysts are expecting more upside for PBR.
Petrobras benefits from its dominant position in Brazil's oil and gas industry, strong pre-salt assets, expanding high-value refining capacity, attractive valuation, and strategic downstream and decarbonization initiatives that enhance long-term growth prospects. Its investments in carbon capture and storage (CCS), thermoelectric reliability, and low-carbon projects also support a gradual transition strategy. However, the company faces significant challenges, including sensitivity to oil prices, slower progress in renewables versus global peers, execution risks tied to large offshore and refining projects, high capital intensity with long payback periods, and persistent political intervention risks that could pressure pricing policies, investment plans, and dividends. As such, Petrobras warrants a cautious stance at the moment.
The stock is up 28.69% over the past four weeks, and no earnings estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 2 higher, for fiscal 2025. The consensus estimate has moved up as well.
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Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (PBR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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