Watch These 5 Insurance Stocks for Q4 Earnings: Beat or Miss?

Continued improved pricing, exposure growth, portfolio streamlining, solid retention, renewals, reinsurance agreements, and accelerated digitalization are expected to have enhanced insurance stocks’ December-quarter performance. However, catastrophe losses are likely to have weighed on the upside. Insurers yet to report their fourth-quarter results on Feb. 3 are Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company WTW, American Financial Group, Inc. AFG, Chubb Limited CB, and Voya Financial Inc. VOYA.

The insurance space is housed within the broader Finance sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification). Per the latest Earnings Preview, the total earnings of finance companies for the fourth quarter are anticipated to rise 17.7% from the prior-year quarter’s figure. These companies’ revenues are anticipated to improve 9.3%.

Factors Likely to Shape Insurers’ Performance in Q4

Better pricing, solid retention, and exposure growth across business lines are likely to have driven premiums. Per the latest Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, global commercial insurance rates decreased 3% to 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to significant reductions in property insurance rates. This downward trend reflects increased competition and improved insurer capacity, with notable declines in the Pacific (8%), the United Kingdom (4%) and the United States (4%).

Though the fourth quarter did not face an active catastrophic environment, per Aon, global insured losses from natural disaster events in 2025 reached $127 billion, which marked the sixth consecutive year that insurance payouts have exceeded the $100 billion threshold.
Per the global reinsurance company Munich Re, 2025 marked the costliest year ever for insured losses from non-peak catastrophe perils, which made up the bulk of the total as global insured natural disaster losses reached around $108 billion.

Underwriting profit is likely to have benefited from better pricing, reinsurance arrangements, portfolio repositioning, reinsurance covers, and favorable reserve development.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% in its January 2026 meeting, in line with expectations, following three rate cuts in 2025. 

A larger investment asset base, strong cash flow from operating activities, higher bond yields, and an increase in interest income from fixed-maturity securities are expected to have aided net investment income.

The insurance industry’s increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing and robotic process automation expedites business operations. Insurers continue to invest heavily in technology to improve basis points, scale and efficiencies. These investments are likely to have curbed costs and aided the margins of insurers in the second quarter.   
 
A solid capital position is likely to have aided insurers in strategic mergers and acquisitions to sharpen their competitive edge, expand geographically and diversify their portfolio. Sustained wealth distribution to shareholders via dividend hikes, special dividends and share repurchases instill confidence in the insurers.

Let’s find out how the following insurers are placed before their fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Per our proprietary model, the combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Prudential’s U.S. business is expected to have benefited from higher net investment spread income in Retirement Strategies, including the benefit from stronger alternative investment income, coupled with more favorable underwriting results from Individual Life and Group Insurance. The upside is likely to have been offset by lower fee income resulting from the runoff of legacy variable annuity block and higher expenses to support business growth. Prudential Financial’s international businesses are likely to have benefited from higher net investment spread results, including the benefit from stronger alternative investment income and more favorable underwriting. Higher expenses are likely to have offset the upside.

The Individual Retirement Strategies business is likely to have benefited from higher net investment income due to growth in indexed variable and fixed annuities and higher income from non-coupon investments. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by lower asset management and service fees, as well as lower policy charges and fee income. PGIM is likely to have benefited from higher net asset management fees and higher net service, distribution and other revenues. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $3.37, indicating a 13.8% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.54% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. (Read more: PRU Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

PRU’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one, the average surprise being 5.16%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Prudential Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Prudential Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Prudential Financial, Inc. Quote

Willis Tower’s revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have benefited from strong performances across all segments. Double-digit increases across International, which benefited from strong new business and geographic expansion, coupled with the ongoing appeal of the Global Benefits Management solution, are expected to have aided the Organic revenue growth in Health in the to-be-reported quarter. Wealth business revenues are likely to have benefited from strong levels of Retirement work in Great Britain and North America, as well as growth in the investment business from new products and client wins. Strong demand for advisory project work in Europe is expected to have favored Career revenues. (Read more: What's in the Cards for Willis Towers This Earnings Season?)

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WTW’s fourth-quarter earnings per share of $7.92 indicates a 2.5% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of -1.70% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.  

WTW’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one, the average surprise being 2.39%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Price and EPS Surprise

Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company price-eps-surprise | Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Quote

American Financial’s fourth-quarter results are likely to benefit from strong performance across Property and transportation, Specialty casualty, Specialty financial and other specialty businesses. An improved renewal rate and price increase are likely to favor results. However, exposure to cat loss and rising expenses are likely to have weighed on profitability.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AFG’s bottom line is pegged at $3.18, indicating a 1.9% increase from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of -1.05% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

AFG’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in the other two. This is depicted in the chart below:

American Financial Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

American Financial Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Financial Group, Inc. Quote

Chubb’s fourth-quarter top line is likely to have benefited from investment results as well as solid premium revenue growth, driven by a compelling product portfolio, strong retention and new business across most product lines as well as geographic presence. Its digital and AI efforts are expected to have added to the upside. The high net-worth personal lines business is likely to have benefited from strong new business and retention, including positive rates and exposure increases across all lines. Premiums at Life Insurance are expected to have gained from strong new business in North Asia, notably in Huatai, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea. Net investment income is likely to have benefited from higher average invested assets and higher reinvestment rates on fixed maturities. Chubb Limited expects quarterly adjusted net investment income to be $1.775 billion in the fourth quarter. (Read more: Is a Beat in Store for Chubb Limited This Earnings Season?)

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chubb’s fourth-quarter earnings per share of $6.56 indicates an 8.9% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.  

CB’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four reported quarters. This is depicted in the chart below:

Chubb Limited Price and EPS Surprise

Chubb Limited price-eps-surprise | Chubb Limited Quote

Voya Financial’s higher-growth, higher-return, and capital-light businesses boasting a solid presence are likely to aid fourth-quarter results. Cost savings, expansion of the distribution network, and achievement of efficiencies through automation are likely to have aided the upside.
Higher fee income from business growth, favorable equity markets, and net investment spread experience are likely to aid fourth-quarter results. Higher investment capital returns, owing to overall market performance and higher fee revenues, are likely to have aided the upside.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Voya Financial's fourth-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $2.11, indicating an increase of 40.6% from the year-ago reported figure. Voya Financial has an Earnings ESP of +3.89% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. 

The bottom line surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 42.92%. The same is depicted in the chart below:

Voya Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Voya Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Voya Financial, Inc. Quote

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