Personalis, Inc. (PSNL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Personalis, Inc. on Adventures in Burning & Compounding’s Substack by Rush. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on PSNL. Personalis, Inc.'s share was trading at $9.97 as of January 29th. PSNL’s trailing P/E was 53.95 according to Yahoo Finance.

Personalis, Inc. develops, markets, and sells advanced cancer genomic tests and services in the United States and internationally. PSNL represents a compelling investment opportunity driven by its flagship NeXT Personal test, a blood-based assay capable of detecting cancer recurrence 12–18 months earlier than traditional imaging. This ultra-sensitive test tracks up to 1,800 tumor variants using whole-genome sequencing, offering dramatically higher detection rates compared to incumbents like Natera’s Signatera.

While NeXT Personal currently contributes less than 1% of PSNL’s $85M revenue, adoption is strong, with over 600 oncologists using the test and a 98% retention rate. The apparent disconnect in market perception arises from the test not yet being reimbursed by Medicare or private insurers; Personalis has been funding adoption in anticipation of reimbursement, which is expected in Q4 2025, creating a near-term revenue inflection point. The company’s exclusive distribution partnership with Tempus, which reaches over half of U.S. oncologists and integrates directly into workflows across 2,000+ hospitals, positions NeXT Personal for rapid uptake, effectively lowering friction to a one-click ordering process.

The economics are highly attractive, with a fixed $9.6M distribution fee to Tempus and additional upside from data licensing royalties. If NeXT Personal captures 6% of the market by 2029, it could generate $100M in EBIT, implying a $2B valuation at a 20x multiple versus PSNL’s current ~$500M enterprise value.

Beyond NeXT Personal, PSNL’s biopharma services, population sequencing, and Tempus royalty participation provide further upside optionality. Risks include potential reimbursement delays and operational execution challenges, though mitigants include robust data, ongoing adoption, and cash reserves. Overall, PSNL offers a highly asymmetric risk/reward profile, with a transformative clinical platform poised to unlock substantial value in the near term.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Natera, Inc. (NTRA) by FJ Research in May 2025, highlighting its transformative DNA-based diagnostic platforms and rapid adoption in oncology and transplant monitoring. The stock has appreciated approximately 42.38% since coverage. The thesis still stands. Rush shares a bullish view on Personalis’ NeXT Personal test, offering superior cancer recurrence detection and poised for rapid uptake post-reimbursement via Tempus.

Personalis, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 7 hedge fund portfolios held PSNL at the end of the second quarter which was 20 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of PSNL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.