Venture Global, Inc. (VG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Venture Global, Inc. on William’s Substack by William Fleming-Daniels. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on VG. Venture Global, Inc.'s share was trading at $9.67 as of January 29th. VG’s trailing and forward P/E were 10.89 and 14.41 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Venture Global, Inc. engages in the development, construction, and production of natural gas liquefaction and export projects near the US Gulf Coast in Louisiana. VG is one of the most polarizing equities in global energy infrastructure, combining extraordinary operational execution with severe legal, governance, and balance sheet risk. The company has fundamentally disrupted the LNG development model through modular, factory-built liquefaction trains that enable unmatched speed, redundancy, and capital efficiency.

Calcasieu Pass is fully operational and uprated, Plaquemines LNG is rapidly ramping after first exports in late 2024, and CP2 is fully financed and under construction, placing VG on a clear path toward controlling more than 100 MTPA of LNG export capacity by the early 2030s. Operationally, the assets are performing at record levels, with Q3 2025 revenue exceeding $3.3 billion and EBITDA margins approaching utility-like levels as contracted volumes ramp.

Despite this, the stock trades near $6.60, roughly 75% below its IPO price, reflecting a distressed valuation driven almost entirely by litigation risk. Venture Global’s prolonged “commissioning” strategy at Calcasieu Pass allowed it to monetize spot LNG pricing and self-fund growth, but triggered arbitration claims estimated at $4.8–$5.5 billion. A split set of rulings—victory against Shell and defeat against BP—has reinforced binary downside risk and created deep uncertainty around ultimate liability and timing of cash outflows. The market is effectively pricing VG as if these liabilities could impair solvency, despite strong ongoing cash generation.

Looking through the legal overhang, VG’s infrastructure portfolio has replacement costs far exceeding current enterprise value. By 2030, steady-state EBITDA could exceed $8.5 billion, supported by structurally bullish LNG demand from Asia, Europe’s energy security needs, and rising power demand from AI data centers. If litigation is resolved at manageable levels and deleveraging proceeds, the equity could rerate meaningfully, offering asymmetric upside for risk-tolerant investors willing to accept severe volatility and legal uncertainty.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Nextracker Inc. (NXT) by Canopy Research in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s dominant solar tracker market share, software-driven moat, strong margins, and fortress balance sheet. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 171.47% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out as fundamentals outpaced weak sector sentiment. William Fleming-Daniels shares a similar view but emphasizes on distressed valuation driven by legal risk rather than operational weakness.

Venture Global, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held VG at the end of the third quarter which was 22 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of VG as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.