ABIVAX Societe Anonyme (ABVX): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on ABIVAX Société Anonyme on Alpha Talon Investment Research’s Substack by AT Investment Research. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ABVX. ABIVAX Société Anonyme's share was trading at $113.54 as of January 29th.

ABIVAX Société Anonyme, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on developing therapeutics that harness the body's natural regulatory mechanisms to stabilize the immune response in patients with chronic inflammatory diseases. ABVX continues to capture investor attention following a 7% surge after presenting late-breaking Phase 3 ABTECT data at the United European Gastroenterology (UEG) Meeting in October 2025.

The French biotech’s lead candidate, Obefazimod (ABX464), demonstrated a pooled 16.4% placebo-adjusted clinical-remission rate at week 8 in moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis, meeting all key secondary endpoints across ABTECT-1 and ABTECT-2. Notably, the trial included a highly refractory population, with nearly half of participants having failed prior advanced therapies, including JAK inhibitors, underscoring the drug’s potential as a first-in-class oral therapy for patients with limited treatment options.

The safety profile was clean and highly tolerable, with only mild, transient side effects such as headache and nausea, differentiating Obefazimod from JAK inhibitors and supporting the potential for broad physician adoption. The market responded positively, reflecting confidence in both efficacy and safety, as well as anticipation of further regulatory updates and conference call disclosures.

With pivotal maintenance and Crohn’s trials planned for 2026–2027, Abivax remains on track to expand valuation through clear clinical and regulatory catalysts. Financially, the company is well-capitalized with a cash runway into late 2027, enabling it to complete pivotal studies and prepare for commercialization without immediate dilution risk.

Peak sales potential for Obefazimod is estimated at $4 billion, and with a 60% probability of approval, the base-case fair value stands at $115 per ADS, offering roughly 30% upside and a bull case of $210. Abivax’s combination of de-risked late-stage data, robust efficacy, and a clean safety profile positions it as a high-conviction biotech growth story, poised to transition from a clinical-stage company into a global leader in immunology if long-term data continue to support its promise.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Harrow, Inc. (HROW) by Simon in October 2024, which highlighted strong revenue growth across ophthalmic drugs and compounding pharmacy operations, supported by a direct-to-provider model and product launches like Vevye. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 4.85% since our coverage. AT Investment Research shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Abivax’s late-stage clinical data and clean safety profile.

ABIVAX Société Anonyme is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 56 hedge fund portfolios held ABVX at the end of the third quarter which was 17 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of ABVX as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.