MP Materials Corp. (MP): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on MP Materials Corp. (MP) on wallstreetbets Subreddit Page by Steve_Zissouu. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MP. MP Materials Corp. (MP)'s share was trading at $23.19 as of April 21^st. MP’s trailing and forward P/E were 20.97 and 24.10 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

The mining industry is entering a pivotal moment, with a unique opportunity emerging as the U.S. government intensifies efforts to secure domestic access to critical minerals like titanium, lithium, and rare earths. This window of opportunity, which aligns with the current administration’s strategic priorities, is particularly promising for companies operating within U.S. borders and allied interests. A central player in this unfolding narrative is MP Materials, the only vertically integrated rare earth mining and processing company in the United States. In a major move, MP Materials announced it has ceased shipments of rare earth concentrate to China, citing retaliatory tariffs and national interest. This development is not only a symbolic decoupling from Chinese dependency but also a practical demonstration of the company’s increasing self-sufficiency. MP Materials has invested nearly $1 billion to restore a fully domestic rare earth supply chain, with its California refinery already processing half of its production and selling it to non-Chinese markets such as Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. This step underscores MP’s operational readiness to pivot entirely away from China and aligns perfectly with a national agenda prioritizing secure, domestic sourcing of critical materials.

Reinforcing this shift is the Biden administration’s recent directive under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, mandating an investigation into critical mineral imports and their impact on national security. The investigation aims to uncover vulnerabilities, assess foreign market manipulation—primarily by China—and recommend trade remedies that could include tariffs and other import controls. This initiative is a strong signal that the administration is committed to reshoring supply chains and protecting strategic sectors, making domestic players like MP Materials prime beneficiaries. The administration’s actions further support the idea that purchasing agreements or government-backed contracts may be implemented to stabilize and accelerate domestic production capabilities.

Adding another layer of momentum is a forthcoming U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal, expected to be signed around April 26. The agreement, likely to focus on securing Ukrainian mineral resources for U.S. refining, could provide MP Materials with a significant supply stream to process domestically, enhancing its role in a Western-aligned mineral supply chain. The convergence of these developments—the end of Chinese shipments, regulatory support for domestic resilience, and international sourcing partnerships—places MP Materials at the epicenter of a rapidly evolving critical minerals strategy. While market volatility is expected in the short term, the strategic and structural shifts underway point to upside for investors focused on geopolitically secure, government-supported mining and materials processing in the U.S.

MP Materials Corp. (MP) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 33 hedge fund portfolios held MP at the end of the fourth quarter which was 27 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of MP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MP but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.