CARR to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Carrier Global CARR is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 36 cents per share, down 10% over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 33.33%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.04 billion, indicating a 2.04% year-over-year decline.

For 2025, CARR expects to achieve sales of $22 billion, reflecting flat organic growth. The company anticipates adjusted earnings of $2.65 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 4%.
 

Carrier Global Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Carrier Global Corporation price-eps-surprise | Carrier Global Corporation Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $21.95 billion, indicating an 8.54% year-over-year decline. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $2.61 per share, down 3 cents over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 1.95%.

Carrier Global’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10.22%.

Let’s see how things might have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced CARR’s Q4 Performance

Carrier Global’s fourth-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from strong momentum in its Commercial HVAC and aftermarket services segments. The company’s strong momentum in the Americas’ commercial business is expected to have driven revenue growth in the to-be-reported quarter.  In the Americas, the Commercial HVAC segment is expected to have grown more than 25% for 2025, with data centers and industrial production being key drivers of this growth. 

Aftermarket services, which involve the repair, maintenance and replacement of equipment, have been seeing double-digit growth for several years. This trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well.

Carrier Global’s integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions and the launch of Toshiba VRF product line and energy-efficient container units are expected to have boosted heat pump volumes and expanded its reach in their respective markets in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, weakness in CARR’s residential and light commercial businesses, particularly in the Americas and Europe, remains a concern. The residential and light commercial segment in China continues to experience sluggish demand, further hurting overall performance. In the fourth quarter of 2025, CSA Resi sales are expected to have declined approximately 30%, with volumes down about 40%, due to ongoing destocking efforts and weak movement in the residential market.

What Our Model Says for CARR

According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the exact case here.

Carrier Global has an Earnings ESP of -1.13% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

Analog Devices ADI has an Earnings ESP of +2.98% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Analog Devices' shares have gained 53.8% in the trailing 12-month period. ADI is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on Feb. 18, 2026.

Microchip Technology MCHP has an Earnings ESP of +1.34% and a Zacks Rank #1. 

Microchip Technology shares have gained 46.8% in the past 12-month period. MCHP is likely to report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 5, 2026

MKS MKSI has an Earnings ESP of +2.68% and a Zacks Rank #1. 

MKS shares have gained 110.2% in the past 12-month period. The company is likely to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 17, 2026.
 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research