Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. on Value investing subreddit by  RareGummy. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HG. Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s share was trading at $27.67 as of January 29th. HG’s trailing P/E was 6.46 according to Yahoo Finance.

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, operates as specialty insurance and reinsurance company in Bermuda and internationally. HG stands out as a compelling value opportunity in a market dominated by excitement around AI, data centers, and high-growth tech investments. As investors increasingly question whether massive AI spending will translate into near-term returns, a business like Hamilton—quiet, steady, and cash-generative—offers a refreshing contrast.

Founded in 2013 and publicly listed only since late 2023, the company has a short trading history but already displays the traits of a fundamentally strong insurance and reinsurance operator. Its property, casualty, and specialty lines have delivered consistent expansion, with gross premiums written rising from $1.09B in 2020 to $2.42B in 2024, a robust 22% annual growth rate. The momentum has continued into 2025, positioning the firm for another record year. Free cash flow has accelerated even faster, climbing from $188M in 2020 to $759M in 2024—an average growth rate above 50%—and supporting meaningful shareholder returns, including $85.8M in buybacks year-to-date.

Despite this strong performance, Hamilton trades at valuation levels that suggest the market hasn’t fully recognized its earnings power. At $27.14 per share and a $2.67B market cap, the company sits at just over 3.5x EBITDA and a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5, with an enterprise value of only $1.86B and modest $150M debt.

A combined ratio of 87.8% highlights disciplined underwriting, while trailing EPS of $4.19 underscores the firm’s profitability. Although catastrophe exposure remains an inherent industry risk, a relatively calm year has showcased how Hamilton’s growing scale, expanding premiums, and strong cash generation can create meaningful value. With shares already up 45% YTD, HG emerges as an intriguing, potentially undervalued insurer at a moment when reliable earnings and free cash flow are especially prized.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. by Karst Research in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s disciplined turnaround, improving underwriting, and strong capital position. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 30.15% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out. The thesis still stands as fundamentals continue to strengthen. RareGummy shares a similar view but emphasizes accelerating free cash flow.

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 17 hedge fund portfolios held HG at the end of the third quarter which was 24 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of HG as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.