Want Better Returns? Don't Ignore These 2 Basic Materials Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Nutrien?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Nutrien (NTR) earns a #1 (Strong Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.92 a share, just 14 days from its upcoming earnings release on February 18, 2026.

Nutrien's Earnings ESP sits at +5.34%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.92 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.87. NTR is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

NTR is part of a big group of Basic Materials stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) as well.

Freeport-McMoRan, which is readying to report earnings on April 23, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.52 a share, and FCX is 78 days out from its next earnings report.

Freeport-McMoRan's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +13.38% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.46.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, NTR and FCX could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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