AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. on Global Equity Briefing’s Substack by Ray Myers. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ASTS. AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s share was trading at $121.23 as of January 28th.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States. AST SpaceMobile is positioning itself as a transformative player in global communications by building the first space-based cellular broadband network capable of connecting directly to standard, unmodified smartphones.

After years in technology validation, the company is now transitioning toward commercialization, a shift that has fueled intense investor enthusiasm. Shares are up over 300% year-to-date, giving ASTS a market capitalization of roughly $30.7 billion despite trailing revenues of just $18.5 million, reflecting investor belief in its ambition to address a $100B+ direct-to-device connectivity opportunity.

The core thesis rests on ASTS’s differentiated technology and partnership-driven business model. Its BlueBird satellites function as space-based cell towers using massive phased-array antennas, enabling direct smartphone connectivity without specialized hardware. Successful tests have already demonstrated video calls and high data speeds, and the upcoming launch of next-generation BlueBird satellites from India represents a key inflection point. These satellites are significantly larger, more powerful, and enabled by a custom ASIC chip that improves efficiency, lowers costs, and expands data capacity, positioning ASTS ahead of competitors limited to low-bandwidth or emergency-only services.

Commercially, ASTS has chosen to partner with mobile network operators rather than compete with them, acting as a wholesale connectivity provider that integrates seamlessly into existing networks. Agreements now cover operators with over 3 billion subscribers, including meaningful prepayments, while government and military contracts add a potentially lucrative revenue stream. Financially, near-term cash burn remains substantial as the network is built out, but recent capital raises have extended the company’s liquidity runway.

Ultimately, ASTS represents a VC-style investment in the public markets. If execution succeeds, the upside could be enormous as revenues and margins scale rapidly. However, the valuation leaves little room for operational missteps, launch delays, or intensified competition from players like SpaceX, making the opportunity highly asymmetric and inherently risky.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted early commercialization progress, balance sheet strength, satellite deployment milestones, and government validation. ASTS’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 362% since our coverage due to successful technology demonstrations and rising investor optimism. Ray Myers shares a similar thesis but emphasizes valuation expansion, scale, and commercialization inflection.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 25 hedge fund portfolios held ASTS at the end of the third quarter which was 30 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ASTS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ASTS and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.