Masco to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What Investors Must Know

Masco Corporation MAS is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings and net sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.9% and 1.1%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, both top and bottom lines declined 3% and 10%, respectively.

Masco’s earnings topped the consensus mark in two of the last four quarters and missed on the remaining two occasions, the average surprise being 2.8%.

MAS’ Estimate Revision Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at 78 cents over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 12.4% decline from the year-ago EPS of 89 cents.

Masco Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Masco Corporation price-eps-surprise | Masco Corporation Quote

The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $1.83 billion, which indicates a slight decline from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Factors Likely to Define Masco’s Q4 Results

Sales Trends

Masco’s fourth-quarter top line is expected to have declined year over year due to reduced contributions from the Decorative Architectural Products segment, which accounted for 35% of total net sales in the third quarter of 2025. The segment is expected to have been affected by lower sales volume across paint and builders’ hardware, along with the adverse impact from the prior divestiture of the Kichler business. DIY paint demand is likely to have stayed weak, indicating low existing home turnover and softer industry trends, which have continued to pressure overall segment performance.

Furthermore, demand for DIY paint is likely to have remained soft across the industry, caused by low existing home turnover and muted repair and remodel activity. Lower volumes in the paint business and softer builders’ hardware shipments are expected to weigh on results during the quarter, even as the PRO paint category showed modest growth.

However, sales improvement in the Plumbing Products segment (which accounted for 65% of total net sales in the third quarter of 2025) is likely to have supported the top line from declining further amid macro uncertainties. This segment is expected to have benefited from higher net selling prices and steady performance in e-commerce and trade channels, partially offset by lower volumes and softer demand in certain international markets such as China.

Segment-wise, our model expects the Plumbing Products segment’s net sales to inch up 2.3% year over year to $1.22 billion. The expectations for the Decorative Architectural Products segment’s net sales indicate a 6.8% decline year over year to $595.9 million.

Geographically, we expect net sales in North America (which accounted for 78.9% of third-quarter 2025 total net sales) to decline 1.9% year over year to $1.42 billion. Net sales in International (which accounted for 21.1% of third-quarter 2025 total net sales) are anticipated to increase year over year by 3.3% to $391.6 million.

Margins

The company’s bottom line in the fourth quarter of 2025 is likely to have declined year over year due to higher costs associated with tariffs and commodity inflation. Masco has faced added expenses from elevated import duties, including incremental China tariffs and broader global tariffs on key inputs, which have increased material and product costs during the quarter. Higher copper and other commodity costs are also expected to have added pressure. Although the company has implemented mitigation actions such as pricing, cost reductions and sourcing changes, these efforts are unlikely to have fully offset the near-term cost burden.

In addition, lower sales volume and softer demand in both Plumbing and Decorative Architectural Products segments are expected to have weighed on profitability. The Decorative Architectural business is likely to have faced pressure from weak DIY paint demand and lower builders’ hardware shipments, while Plumbing margins have been affected by softer industry conditions and higher inventory-related reserves.

Segment-wise, we expect the adjusted operating margin for Plumbing Products and Decorative Architectural Products to decline year over year by 100 basis points (bps) to 15.8% and 300 bps to 14.7%, respectively.

What Our Model Unveils for MAS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Masco this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

MAS’ Earnings ESP: MAS has an Earnings ESP of -3.33%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank of MAS: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the respective quarters to be reported.

Construction Partners, Inc. ROAD has an Earnings ESP of +14.52% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Construction Partners’ earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 92%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 24% year over year.

Weyerhaeuser Company WY has an Earnings ESP of +278.57% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 59.1%. Weyerhaeuser’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline 109.1% year over year.

AAON, Inc. AAON currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 3.3%. AAON’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 50% year over year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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