ON Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

On Semiconductor ON is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 9, 2026.

For the to-be-reported quarter, ON expects revenues between $1.480 billion and $1.580 billion. Earnings are expected to be in the range of 57-67 cents per share.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $1.53 billion, suggesting a decline of 11% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 62 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, and indicates a decline of 34.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

On Semiconductor’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining ones, with the average surprise being 1.98%.
 

ON Semiconductor Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

ON Semiconductor Corporation price-eps-surprise | ON Semiconductor Corporation Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced ON’s Q4 Performance

ON’s fourth-quarter 2025 is expected to have benefited from stabilization in its core segments – automotive and industrial, following sequential growth of 7% in automotive revenues and 5% in industrial revenues in the third quarter of 2025. This stabilization is going to continue in the to-be-reported quarter.

In the AI data center market, ON Semiconductor is benefiting from a strong portfolio that increases power density and reduces energy loss. These factors are expected to have driven revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The company approximately doubled its AI revenues year over year in the third quarter and is now material, with almost $250 million expected in 2025. On Semiconductor’s design wins in both automotive and industrial markets reflect a broad global engagement.

Ongoing momentum at the Treo platform is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter of 2025. Treo’s differentiated technology, modular SoC-like design, and ability to integrate high and low voltage domains are driving strong customer engagement across all of ON’s end markets, a trend likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. However, weakness in Europe and China is expected to have negatively impacted the automotive end-market. Flat utilization, as guided by ON management, is expected to have dragged down gross margin in the to-be-reported quarter, which was expected to have been in the 36.5-38.5% range (significantly below the long-term target of 53%).

What Our Model Says for ON

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

ON currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:

Analog Devices ADI has an Earnings ESP of +2.98% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Analog Devices' shares have gained 53% in the trailing 12-month period. ADI is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on Feb. 18, 2026.

Applied Materials AMAT has an Earnings ESP of +2.99% and a Zacks Rank #2. 

Applied Materials shares have gained 70.4% in the past 12-month period. AMAT is likely to report its first-quarter 2026 results on Feb. 12, 2026

MKS MKSI has an Earnings ESP of +2.68% and a Zacks Rank #1. 

MKS shares have gained 97.3% in the past 12-month period. The company is likely to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 17, 2026.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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