Duke Energy to Release Q4 Earnings: How to Approach the Stock Now?

Duke Energy Corporation DUK is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10, before market open. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.51 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 9.04%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pinned at $7.64 billion, calling for a rise of 3.83% from the year-ago reported figure.

DUK’s Earnings Surprise History

DUK surpassed expectations in each of the last four reported quarters and delivered an average earnings surprise of 5.72%.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for DUK

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Duke Energy this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -2.54%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, DUK carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). 

You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Worth a Look

Some stocks in the same industry that have the combination of factors indicating an earnings beat are Edison International EIX and Eversource Energy ES. EIX and ES have an Earnings ESP of +8.65% and +1.27%, respectively. Both Edison International and Eversource Energy hold a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Factors That Might Have Impacted DUK’s Q4 Performance

The company is likely to have continued benefiting from its strategic investments in infrastructure modernization and grid resilience, which have improved operational efficiency and reliability. These initiatives are expected to have supported its fourth-quarter earnings.

Rising electricity demand from AI-driven data centers and robust economic development across its service territories are expected to have boosted DUK’s quarterly earnings. An expanding residential customer base is also likely to contribute to stronger fourth-quarter results.

In December 2025, Duke Energy Florida completed efficiency upgrades at the Bartow Power Plant in St. Petersburg and two units at the Hines Energy Complex in Bartow, enabling the facilities to generate more than 180 megawatts (MW) of additional power using the same amount of fuel. During the same month, the company also brought online two new solar sites — the Half Moon Renewable Energy Center in Sumter County and the Rattler Renewable Energy Center in Hernando County — which are expected to deliver meaningful customer savings. These initiatives are likely to have contributed to the to-be-reported quarter. 

Higher sales volumes and the implementation of new rates in the electric and gas segments in prior quarters are expected to have enhanced the bottom line. 

The majority of DUK’s service territories witnessed below normal temperatures during the quarter. This is likely to have boosted electricity demand from its customers for heating purposes, which must have improved the company’s top-line performance.

Higher operating expenses might have offset some of the upsides in the to-be-reported quarter.

DUK Stock Price Performance

In the past three months, the stock has declined 0.2% against the industry’s growth of 1.2%.

DUK Stock Trading at a Premium

Duke Energy is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis.

DUK Stock Returns Lower Than Its Industry

The company’s trailing 12-month return on equity of 9.98% is lower than the industry average of 10.7%. Return on equity, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company utilizes its shareholders’ funds to generate income.

Investment Viewpoint

Duke Energy is gaining momentum through its broad energy mix and ongoing investments in modern technology.

In January 2026, Duke Energy launched its DeBary Hydrogen Production Storage System in Volusia County, the first U.S. demonstration project capable of producing, storing and combusting up to 100% green hydrogen, and brought online a 50-MW, four-hour battery energy storage system at its former Allen coal plant. These developments are expected to strengthen grid reliability, accelerate clean energy integration and generate long-term cost and sustainability benefits for both the company and its customers.

Severe weather events, including storms and hurricanes, frequently affect Duke Energy’s service territories, leading to widespread outages and infrastructure damage. These disruptions can weigh on revenues, while restoration costs pressure the company’s bottom line.

Duke Energy relies heavily on interstate pipelines to transport natural gas under firm service agreements, making its operations vulnerable to supply or capacity disruptions caused by operational failures, extreme weather, cyber or security events, or regulatory actions. Any constraints on natural gas infrastructure development could disrupt supply, reduce earnings and limit future growth opportunities.

Endnote on DUK

Duke Energy stands to gain from increasing power demand, driven by AI-focused data centers and strong economic expansion in its service regions. It remains exposed to risks from severe weather events, such as storms and hurricanes, which can cause outages and elevate restoration costs. Duke Energy’s heavy reliance on interstate natural gas pipelines exposes it to supply disruptions and infrastructure constraints that could hurt earnings and limit growth.

Given its recent price underperformance, weaker earnings growth and relatively lower ROE, investors should avoid this stock at the moment.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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