Burford Capital Limited (BUR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited on Valueinvestorsclub.com by zbeex. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BUR. Burford Capital Limited's share was trading at $9.48 as of January 28th. BUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 24.52 and 9.68 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide. BUR present a highly asymmetric investment opportunity with potential for 3x upside and a strong margin of safety. Trading at roughly $9/share, BUR is priced near single-digit P/E on normalized earnings despite a 15-year track record of mid-20% IRRs and nearly 20% compounded book value growth, with $5 billion in expected proceeds from current case portfolios and optionality from high-potential litigation, including meatpacking price-fixing cases and the $16.1 billion YPF judgment against Argentina.

Burford is the global leader in litigation finance, managing $1.8 billion in balance sheet deployments, $1.2 billion in committed cases, and $2.9 billion in third-party assets, offering uncorrelated, historically strong returns with inherent upside asymmetry through multi-bagger cases. Its scale, deep relationships, proprietary data, and aligned management ownership reinforce its moat.

The YPF case, originating from Argentina’s 2012 expropriation of Repsol and Petersen stakes, has survived extensive litigation and a 2023 $16.1 billion SDNY judgment, with appeals now before the Second Circuit. Legal analysis indicates an >80% probability of affirmance, with weak defenses under Forum Non Conveniens, international comity, Argentine law, and damages calculation. Separately, Burford’s $100 million investment in U.S. meatpacking antitrust cases offers potential for substantial multi-billion-dollar recoveries, providing additional “free optionality.”

Conservative valuation of BUR’s core business suggests $16–$18/share, with the YPF case and other litigation acting as optional upside, while the Petersen Units provide direct exposure to appellate outcomes. Market misinterpretation of Second Circuit oral arguments and political developments in Argentina have depressed prices, creating a compelling entry point. The imminent Second Circuit decision serves as a clear catalyst, with both equities and litigation-linked units poised for significant re-rating upon favorable rulings and settlement progress.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited (BUR) by Coughlin Capital in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s leadership in litigation finance, strong track record of mid-20% IRRs, proprietary data advantages, and the $16.1 billion YPF litigation against Argentina. BUR’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 33.61% since our coverage due to market volatility and pending appeals. zbeex shares a similar thesis but emphasizes the asymmetric upside from Petersen Units and meatpacking antitrust cases, with the imminent Second Circuit decision as a near-term catalyst.

Burford Capital Limited is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 33 hedge fund portfolios held BUR at the end of the third quarter which was 32 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of BUR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than BUR and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.