Can Ero Copper Sustain Record Copper Output Growth Ahead?

Ero Copper Corp. ERO reported stellar operational gains in the fourth quarter of 2025, delivering record consolidated copper production of 19,706 tons of copper in concentrate. This was supported by improved execution across both of its core operating sites. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, output rose approximately 18.3% from the previous quarter, and roughly 53% on a year-over-year basis. This was driven primarily by the continued ramp-up of the Tucumã Operation and higher processing capacity at the Caraíba Operations. 

Tucumã posted a 22% sequential increase in production as plant throughput improved steadily and recovery rates stabilized, reflecting its transition into more consistent commercial-scale performance. Concurrently, Caraíba benefited from stronger mining rates and the completion of a multi-quarter mill debottlenecking initiative, which lifted throughput by roughly 15% sequentially and enabled the processing of greater ore volumes despite grade variability. 

Among peers, Lundin Mining Corporation LUNMF reported 87,032 tons of consolidated copper production in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 87,353 tons in the third quarter. In 2025, Lundin Mining produced 331,232 tons of copper, lower than 369,067 tons in 2024. It expects consolidated copper production to be between 310,000 and 335,000 tons in 2026. 

Southern Copper Corporation SCCO recorded 242,172 tons of copper production in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a marginal year-over-year increase from the prior-year period. This was mainly driven by better ore grades and recoveries at La Caridad, Toquepala, Cuajone and IMMSA mines.  

For 2025, Southern Copper generated 956,270 tons of copper, about 1.8% lower year over year. It expects full-year 2026 copper output of around 911,400 tons. This indicates a 4.7% year- over-year decline, mainly reflecting lower ore grades at SCCO’s Peruvian operations. 

The Zacks Rundown for ERO

Shares of ERO have popped 120.5% over the past year compared with the industry’s 78.7% rise.

From a valuation perspective, ERO is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 3.06X, below the industry’s average of 5.13X. It carries a Value Score of B. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ERO for 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 155.13% and 104.4%, respectively. 

The consensus estimate for EPS for fiscal 2025 and 2026 have been trending higher over the past 90 days. 

ERO currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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