Bitcoin To Hit $150,000 In 2026 Since 'Nothing Blew Up,' Bernstein Argues

Bernstein reiterated its $150,000 Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price target for 2026, calling the current downturn the “weakest bear case” in the asset’s history and arguing the 50% crash reflects a confidence crisis rather than structural damage.

The Weakest Bear Case Ever

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said this downturn is unlike previous Bitcoin crashes because nothing actually failed according to the Block.

“Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel,” they wrote. “When all stars are aligned, the Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence.”

What makes this different: A pro-Bitcoin U.S. president is in office, Bitcoin ETFs are trading successfully, major companies are buying Bitcoin for their balance sheets, and large asset managers remain involved. None of this existed during previous crashes.

Addressing Bear Arguments

On Bitcoin underperforming gold, Bernstein argued Bitcoin continues trading primarily as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven. 

Tighter financial conditions and elevated interest rates concentrated gains in precious metals and AI stocks, but Bitcoin’s ETF infrastructure remains positioned to absorb improved liquidity when conditions ease.

On losing relevance to AI, analysts argued blockchains and programmable wallets suit an emerging “agentic” digital environment where autonomous software agents require global, machine-readable financial rails. 

Blockchain systems offer advantages over traditional banking infrastructure constrained by closed APIs and legacy integration.

Bernstein further said quantum computers threaten all digital systems equally—banks, governments, and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will upgrade its security alongside everyone else when quantum computers become a real threat.

On leveraged corporate treasuries, analysts noted Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) structured its liabilities to withstand prolonged downturns. 

As mentioned in Strategy’s earnings call, only if Bitcoin crashes to $8,000 and stays there for five years would its balance sheet need restructuring.

BTC Technical Reality

Bitcoin is testing critical $73,375 support. If this floor fails, BTC faces a dangerous air pocket with next major support not appearing until $62,000-$65,000. 

Below that, $52,000 represents a major psychological zone.

The Supertrend at $81,644 remains firmly bearish, positioned well above current prices.

Bitcoin trades deep in the red zone, confirming the downtrend structure stays intact. Bulls need to reclaim $81,000-$82,000 to flip this indicator.

The RSI at 31.82 shows Bitcoin in weak momentum territory, well below 50. The recent relief rally failed, and the RSI is rolling over again.

Bernstein’s $150,000 target represents 119% upside from current levels, banking on improved liquidity conditions and institutional adoption overcoming the confidence crisis.

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