NIKE Stock Breaks Below 50-Day SMA: Buying Sign or Time to Exit?

Shares of NIKE Inc. NKE have lost momentum in recent months, pushing it below industry thresholds and portraying a bearish sentiment from a technical standpoint. As a result, the NKE stock slipped below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday. Notably, the stock closed at $62.41 on Feb. 9, 2026, moving below the 50-day SMA of $63.89.

A drop below the 50-day SMA typically signals weakness, suggesting a shift from short-term bullish to bearish sentiment. It highlights fading investor confidence and slower buying interest, especially after months of underperformance.

Additionally, the sportswear behemoth moved below its 200-day SMA on Jan. 27, 2026, and continues to trade below the mark since then, indicating a long-term downward trend.

SMA is an essential tool in technical analysis that helps investors evaluate price trends by smoothing out short-term fluctuations. This approach also provides a clearer perspective on a stock's long-term direction.

NKE Stock Trades Below 50 & 200-Day SMAs

NIKE has shown a lackluster performance, with its shares declining 15.6% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry’s 12.8% fall. The NKE stock has also underperformed the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector’s 6.9% decline and the S&P 500's 11% rally in the same period.

NKE’s performance is notably weaker than that of its competitors, Carter’s Inc. CRI and Steven Madden SHOO, which have rallied 56% and 48.5%, respectively, in the past six months. The NKE stock also lagged adidas AG’s ADDYY decline of 3.8% in the same period.

NIKE’s 6-Month Price Performance

At its current price of $62.41, the NKE stock trades 19.4% above its 52-week low mark of $52.28 and 24.3% below its 52-week high mark of $82.44.

Why Has NIKE’s Stock Struggled to Gain Momentum?

NIKE’s stock has struggled to regain momentum as the company grapples with a prolonged and uneven turnaround marked by structural, geographic and margin-related headwinds. While management reiterated confidence in its “Win Now” strategy, the company remains firmly in what it calls the “middle innings” of recovery, with visibility still limited.

A major overhang continues to be margin pressure. NIKE is navigating both transitory and structural headwinds, including $1.5 billion in annualized incremental product costs tied to higher U.S. tariffs. These costs represent a gross 320-basis-point (bps) drag on fiscal 2026 margins, weighing heavily on near-term EBIT despite mitigation efforts. Continued inventory clean-up, elevated markdowns and channel mix shifts have further constrained profitability.

Geographic weakness is another critical factor. Greater China remains NIKE’s longest road to recovery, with second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues down 16% and EBIT plunging nearly 50%. Management acknowledged persistent challenges from soft traffic, excess inventory and heavy discounting that have diluted brand premiumization, particularly in digital channels. APLA and Converse also remain under pressure, limiting global growth leverage.

At the same time, NIKE Direct and Digital sales continue to decline as the company recalibrates its marketplace strategy. While wholesale growth has returned, management cautioned that progress will not be linear, as brands, sports and regions recover on different timelines.

NIKE guided for low-single-digit revenue declines in third-quarter fiscal 2026 and another quarter of margin contraction, reinforcing a bleak near-term outlook. Until earnings visibility improves and international markets stabilize, investor confidence and stock momentum may remain subdued.

Here’s How Estimates Are Shaping for NKE

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE’s fiscal 2026 EPS has been unchanged, while the consensus mark for fiscal 2027 EPS moved down 1.2% in the last 30 days. For fiscal 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s revenues implies 1.1% year-over-year growth, while the estimate for EPS suggests a 27.3% decline. The consensus mark for fiscal 2027 revenues and earnings indicates 4.2% and 54.1% year-over-year growth, respectively.

NIKE’s Valuation Picture

While NIKE remains fundamentally strong, backed by its decisive actions to reposition itself for sustainable and profitable long-term growth, its current forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 28.94X raises concerns about whether the stock's valuation is justified. This multiple is higher than the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry average of 26.45X and the S&P 500’s average of 22.98X, making the stock appear relatively expensive.

At 28.94X P/E, the Swoosh brand owner is trading at a much higher valuation than its competitors. Its peers, such as Carter’s, Steven Madden and adidas, are delivering solid growth and trade at more reasonable multiples. Carter’s, Steven Madden and adidas have forward 12-month P/E ratios of 15.56X, 17.29X and 14.62X — all significantly lower than NIKE. At such levels, NKE’s valuation seems out of step with its growth trajectory, especially given the recent decline in its stock price.

Is NIKE Still Worth Considering?

NIKE’s recent stock performance underscores growing investor caution. The stock’s move below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages reflects weakening technical momentum and reinforces a bearish shift in investor sentiment. This technical breakdown, combined with continued underperformance versus peers and broader benchmarks, suggests limited near-term buying interest. Fundamentally, NIKE’s premium valuation appears difficult to justify amid margin pressure, uneven geographic recovery and a soft near-term outlook.

Earnings expectations for fiscal 2026 continue to point to pressure on profitability, reinforcing investor skepticism and encouraging a wait-and-watch approach. While NIKE remains a powerful global brand and is taking steps to reposition for long-term growth, the recovery path appears gradual and uncertain. Until earnings visibility improves and key headwinds ease, stock momentum is likely to remain constrained. Given the weak technical setup, stretched valuation and ongoing earnings pressure, investors may be better off staying away from this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) stock for now.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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