Mohawk Gears to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store this Season?

Mohawk Industries, Inc. MHK is scheduled to report results for its fourth quarter of 2025 on Feb. 12, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.4% while net sales topped the same by 1.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the top line grew 1.4%, but the bottom line tumbled 7.9%.

MHK’s earnings surpassed expectations in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining one occasion, with an average surprise of 4.2%.

Trends in MHK’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter EPS has remained unchanged at $1.98 over the past 60 days, indicating a 1.5% improvement from the prior-year period’s EPS of $1.95.

The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $2.71 billion, indicating 2.9% growth from the year-ago period.

Mohawk Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Mohawk Industries, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mohawk Industries, Inc. Quote

Factors Attributing to Mohawk’s Q4 Results

Sales Trends

During the fourth quarter, Mohawk’s top-line performance is expected to have improved year over year on the back of increased contributions from the Global Ceramic (contributed 40.1% to third quarter 2025 net sales) and Flooring Rest of the World (contributed 26% to third quarter 2025 net sales) business segments. The uptrend in the Global Ceramic segment is expected to have been backed by increased performance of the premium collections, commercial sales and expanded distribution. The Flooring Rest of the World segment is likely to have gained because of strength in panels and insulation, with rising volumes increasing plant utilization.

Mohawk’s consistent approach of strategic product innovations, targeted marketing initiatives and expanded market reach has been sailing its ship in the challenging market conditions.

However, this positive trend is likely to have been somewhat offset by soft contributions from the Flooring North America segment, which contributed 34% to third-quarter 2025 net sales. Weaker market volumes, as the residential market continues to remain soft alongside the return of market seasonality, are expected to have been concerning for the fourth quarter to some extent.

Our model expects fourth-quarter net sales in the Global Ceramic to be up 6.4% to $1.07 billion, Flooring North America to fall 1.2% year over year to $926.4 million and Flooring Rest of World to increase 1.1% to $699.7 million.

Margin Expectations

The bottom line of Mohawk is expected to have inched up compared with last year's quarter because of the favorable pricing strategy mainly undertaken to offset the cost pressures from tariffs and other macro headwinds. Besides, the productivity gains and improved profitability realized through several strategic efforts, including closing high-cost facilities, removing inefficient assets and streamlining distribution, are expected to have aided the fourth quarter’s margins.

The company expects adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.90-$2.00 (excluding restructuring and other charges) compared with $1.95 reported a year ago.

We expect the adjusted gross margin to expand year over year by 40 basis points (bps) to 24.8%. The adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to increase 500 bps to 13.8% from the year-ago period.

What Our Model Unveils for MHK

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Mohawk this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, it is not the case this time.

MHK’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank of MHK: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. HGV currently has an Earnings ESP of +26.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Hilton Grand’s earnings missed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average negative surprise being 47.1%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to surge 114.3% year over year.

PENN Entertainment, Inc. PENN has an Earnings ESP of +7.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

PENN Entertainment’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the remaining two occasions, the average surprise being 59.1%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to rise 54.6% year over year.

SharkNinja, Inc. SN has an Earnings ESP of +0.94% and a Zacks Rank of 3. 

SharkNinja’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 17.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 27.1% year over year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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