Weyerhaeuser to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Weyerhaeuser Company WY is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 24, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 57.1% but net sales missed the same by 2.1%. Quarterly adjusted earnings and net sales for the quarter decreased 31.3% and 3.7%, respectively.

Weyerhaeuser’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 52.3%.

Weyerhaeuser Company Price and EPS Surprise

Weyerhaeuser Company price-eps-surprise | Weyerhaeuser Company Quote

How Are Estimates Placed for Weyerhaeuser Stock?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) has decreased to 12 cents from 14 cents over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a decrease of 25% from the year-ago level.

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.76 billion, indicating a 1.9% year-over-year decline. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Factors Influencing WY’s Q1 Results

Weyerhaeuser's first-quarter 2025 results are expected to reflect a mixed picture, with a downward revision for its Wood Products segment offset by stronger-than-expected performance in Timberlands.

In late March, Weyerhaeuser revised its first-quarter outlook. Weyerhaeuser revised down its first-quarter 2025 Wood Products guidance, now expecting EBITDA to be approximately $35 million lower than in the fourth quarter of 2024. This shift reflects a combination of operational challenges, including higher-than-expected western log costs, weather-driven increases in lumber manufacturing costs, and production disruptions from a fire at an MDF plant, which impacted Engineered Wood Products. Additionally, weaker-than-anticipated sales volumes across most product categories added further pressure.

Our model predicts Wood Products segment’s revenues (which accounted for approximately 73.9% of fourth-quarter 2024 revenues) to decline 0.3% year over year but grow 2.8% sequentially to $1.3 billion in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 31.1% from a year ago and 21.2% sequentially to $126.8 million.

The Timberlands segment is seeing stronger-than-expected momentum. Weyerhaeuser raised its first-quarter EBITDA guidance by $30 million quarter-over-quarter compared with the prior estimate of $20 million. This is largely driven by improved western domestic sales realizations, pushing expected EBITDA for the segment to approximately $156 million.

We expect the Timberlands segment’s net sales (which accounted for 29.1% of fourth-quarter net sales) to remain flat year over year but up 4.8% sequentially to $520.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow 8.1% from a year ago and up 23.6% sequentially to $155.7 million.

Meanwhile, in the Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment, Weyerhaeuser expects first-quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be comparable sequentially, primarily due to timing and sales mix in real estate.

Our model predicts the Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment’s (which accounted for 5% of fourth-quarter net sales) net sales to be $90.6 million, down 15.3% year over year but up 5.3% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be down 18.9% from a year ago but up 0.3% sequentially to $76.2 million.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for WY

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Weyerhaeuser this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Currently, WY has an Earnings ESP of -18.31% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their respective quarters to be reported.

Dream Finders Homes DFH has an Earnings ESP of +19.01% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dream Finders reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed on other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 4.4%. Dream Finders’ earnings for the first quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 10.9%.

MasTec, Inc. MTZ has an Earnings ESP of +0.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

MasTec’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 31.6%. MasTec’s earnings for the quarter to be reported are expected to increase 361.5%.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Martin Marietta Materials’ earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, the average negative surprise being 1.7%. Martin Marietta Materials’ earnings for the quarter to be reported are expected to decrease 2.1%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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