Cenovus Energy's Q4 Earnings on Deck: Should You Exit or Stay Invested?

Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19, 2026, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 28 cents per share, implying an improvement from the year-ago reported number. CVE has witnessed no estimate revision in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $9.7 billion, suggesting a 15.1% improvement from the year-ago figure.

CVE beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 25.96%. This is depicted in the graph below:  

Q4 Earnings Whispers for CVE

Our proven model doesn't predict an earnings beat for CVE this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just not the case here.

The leading integrated player has an Earnings ESP of +1.82% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CVE: Factors to Note

To understand how oil prices behaved in the December quarter, let’s analyze commodity price data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK WTI spot prices for October, November and December of 2025 were $60.89 per barrel, $60.06 per barrel and $57.97 per barrel, respectively.

Commodity prices were $71.99 per barrel, $69.95 per barrel and $70.12 per barrel in October, November and December of 2024, respectively, per EIA. Thus, a lower crude pricing environment is likely to have hurt CVE’s upstream business.

CVE’s Price Performance & Valuation

CVE stock has jumped 43.4% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s 39.8% growth. BP plc BP, another integrated major, has gained 7.6% over the same time frame, while Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM has surged 37.1%.

One-Year Price Chart

Despite Cenovus Energy's prices outperforming the industry, BP and XOM, CVE appears relatively undervalued. The company's current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 6.76, reflecting that it is trading at a discount compared with the industry average of 7.03. BP and XOM are valued higher at 3.09x and 9.58x, respectively.

Investment Thesis of CVE

Crude prices are likely to remain soft in the coming days, as the EIA expects global oil inventories to continue increasing. EIA projects the spot average West Texas Intermediate price for 2026 at $53.42 per barrel, lower than $65.40 per barrel in 2025. With CVE generating the bulk of its earnings from upstream operations, a softer crude pricing environment is likely to weigh on its bottom line.

The company is focused on spending significant capital on several growth projects. While these initiatives are aimed at supporting long-term production growth and competitiveness, they require substantial upfront investment. Given the likelihood of a softer crude pricing environment, this raised capital spending is likely to lay pressure on the company’s bottom line.

Last Word

Given the backdrop, it might be wise for investors to stay away from the stock, even though it is undervalued now.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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