Can Western Union Beat Q4 Earnings on Consumer Services Strength?

The Western Union Company WU is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 20, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 43 cents per share on revenues of $1.04 billion.

The fourth-quarter earnings estimate witnessed no upward revisions against one downward movement over the past month. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year jump of 7.5%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 2.1%.

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Western Union’s revenues is pegged at $4.08 billion, implying a fall of 3.1% year over year. The consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $1.73, implying a year-over-year decrease of 0.6%.

Western Union beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 0.6%. This is depicted in the figure below.

The Western Union Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Western Union Company price-eps-surprise | The Western Union Company Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for Western Union

Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.

WU has an Earnings ESP of +1.51% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping WU’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Consumer Money Transfer revenues indicate 5.2% and 4.8% year-over-year decrease, respectively. The consensus mark for C2C transactions indicates a 2.5% year-over-year decrease, while we expect a nearly 2% fall.

Geographically, revenues are expected to decline year over year in North America, the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, East Asia and Oceania. This is likely to have led to lower revenues. Furthermore, the consensus mark for operating income from the Consumer Money Transfer segment signals a 6.4% year-over-year decline, whereas our model predicts a 7% fall.

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Consumer Services revenues indicates 23.6% year-over-year growth, while our model estimate predicts a 25.7% increase. The consensus mark for operating income from the segment predicts a 163.4% year-over-year surge, while our model indicates 159.5% jump.

Moreover, our model estimate for total operating expenses indicates a 2.4% year-over-year decrease due to lower cost of services and SG&A costs. These are likely to have led to bottom-line growth, positioning the company for an earnings beat.

How Did Peers Perform?

Companies in the broader Finance space, like PayPal Holdings PYPL and American Express Company AXP, have already reported their results for the December quarter. Here’s how they have performed:

PayPal reported fourth-quarter 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.23, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29. However, the metric jumped 3.4% year over year. Net revenues of $8.68 billion increased 3.7% year over year but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.77 billion. PayPal witnessed an uptick in TPV and transaction margin dollars in the quarter.

American Express reported fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of $3.53, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.3%. However, the bottom line climbed 16% year over year. Total revenues, net of interest expense, amounted to $19 billion, which improved 10% year over year. Elevated customer engagement and operating cost levels affected the bottom line. Nevertheless, the downside was partly offset by rising Card Member spending. Higher revolving loan balances and continued strong card fee growth aided AXP’s performance.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research