CF's Q4 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Prices

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.59 per share, up from $1.89 in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings came in at $2.99 per share. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.50.

Net sales rose around 22.8% year over year to $1,872 million in the quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,788.1 million.

In the fourth quarter, average selling prices increased from the same period in 2024, driven by strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues. However, sales volumes were lower year over year, mainly due to lower granular urea and ammonium nitrate sales.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Quote

CF’s Segment Review

Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 23.8% to $708 million in the reported quarter, beating our estimate of $524.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for ammonia rose in 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher average selling prices and reduced maintenance costs, though this was partly offset by increased realized natural gas costs.

Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 6.9% year over year to $372 million, missing our estimate of $402.8 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for granular urea increased in 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly driven by higher average selling prices, though partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.

Sales in the UAN segment rose around 51.6% year over year to $564 million, beating our estimate of $531.7 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN increased in 2025 compared with that of the previous year, mainly due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs.

Sales in the AN segment declined around 19.8% year over year to $81 million, missing our estimate of $100.9 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for AN rose in 2025 from a year ago period, mainly due to increased average selling prices, though this was partly offset by costs related to the incident in November 2025 at CF’s Yazoo City Complex and higher realized natural gas costs.

CF’s Financials

As of Dec. 31, 2025, CF Industries’ cash and cash equivalents were $1.98 billion, up 22.8% year over year. Long-term debt was $3,215 million, up 8.2% year over year.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the reported quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year.

The company repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, and also bought back 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025.

CF’s Outlook

Per CF, the global nitrogen outlook remains positive in the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will remain the world’s largest importers of urea, driving robust consumption, while inventories remain below historical averages. CF sees high planted acres of corn in the United States in 2026. Supply constraints from disrupted Russian exports due to the ongoing conflict, and gas shortages in Trinidad and Iran, are affecting production. Chinese urea exports remain seasonal. North American ammonia supply is expected to be healthy. High natural gas costs curb margins; however, demand for low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen is expected to rise to build a low-carbon nitrogen supply chain.

CF’s Price Performance

Shares of CF Industries have gained 19.4% in the past year compared with the 16.7% growth of the industry.

CF’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space are AngloGold Ashanti plc AU, Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. BVN and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM.

AngloGold is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.90, indicating 113.48% year over year growth. AU currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Buenaventura is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 26. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 59 cents per share, indicating 353.85% year over year growth. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 28.02%. BVN sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

Avino Silver is slated to report fourth-quarter results on March 11. The consensus estimate for ASM’s earnings is pegged at 6 cents. ASM, presently carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), beat the consensus estimate in the last four quarters, the average earnings surprise being 150%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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