Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (NYSE:FIX) shares rose Friday after the company reported a strong fourth-quarter earnings beat, fueled in part by robust demand tied to AI-driven data center construction.
Fourth-Quarter Earnings
Comfort Systems USA reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with earnings per share of $9.37 compared with an estimate of $6.75 and revenue of $2.646 billion versus the $2.337 billion consensus estimate.
Revenue from the technology sector, driven largely by data center projects, accounted for 45% of total revenue in 2025, up from 33% a year earlier, CFO Bill George said during the earnings call.
Net income more than doubled to $330.8 million from $145.9 million a year earlier, while revenue increased 41.7% year over year to $2.65 billion. Gross margin expanded to 25.5% from 23.2%, and adjusted EBITDA rose to $464 million, representing 17.5% of revenue.
For the full year, revenue totaled $9.10 billion, up from $7.03 billion in 2024, while net income increased to $1.02 billion, or $28.88 per diluted share, from $522.4 million, or $14.60 per share, in the prior year, including a 25-cent per-share tax benefit tied to interest income on a prior-year refund.
Massive Backlog
Backlog totaled $11.94 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025, up from $9.38 billion on Sept. 30, 2025, and $5.99 billion a year earlier. On a same-store basis, backlog rose to $11.58 billion from $5.99 billion.
The company generated operating cash flow of $1.19 billion and free cash flow of $1.04 billion for the year, ending the period with $981.9 million in cash and $145.2 million in debt.
CEO Flags Persistent Demand
CEO Brian Lane said, “Unprecedented demand and our reputation for delivering outcomes led to new levels of backlog despite ongoing burn. Specifically, we achieved a third consecutive same-store backlog increase that exceeded $1 billion, with backlog growing by more than $2 billion this quarter. Backlog is just under $12 billion, and it has roughly doubled since the beginning of the year. In addition, in 2025 both our net income and our cash flow eclipsed $1 billion.”
Lane added, “We continue to experience persistent demand and strong pipelines. Given the strength and excellence of our workforce, we are optimistic about our prospects for 2026.”
Dividend Raised
The company’s board declared a quarterly dividend of 70 cents per share, up 10 cents from its prior payout. The dividend will be paid Mar. 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Mar. 6, 2026.
Stock Performance
Comfort Systems USA’s stock has performed exceptionally well over the past year, rising 276.09%. Currently, the stock is trading 17.2% above its 20-day SMA and 79.8% above its 200-day SMA, indicating strong bullish momentum.
This performance is further supported by technical indicators, including the RSI at 69.55, which suggests the stock is nearing overbought territory, and a bullish MACD configuration, which enhances the positive outlook.
Next Earnings
Comfort Systems USA is slated to provide its next financial update on Apr. 23, 2026. With the earnings date approaching, here’s a detailed look at what to expect:
- EPS Estimate: $6.40 (Up from $4.75 YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $2.31 Billion (Up from $1.83 Billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E of 58.2x (Indicates premium valuation)
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $518.00. Recent analyst moves include:
- Stifel: Buy (Raises Target to $1196.00) (Jan. 26)
- DA Davidson: Buy (Maintains Target to $1200.00) (Dec. 19, 2025)
- Stifel: Buy (Raises Target to $1155.00) (Dec. 16, 2025)
Benzinga Edge Scorecard
Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Comfort Systems USA, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
- Value Rank: Weak (Score: 5.22) — Indicates a premium valuation relative to peers.
- Growth Rank: Strong (Score: 84.84/100) — Reflects significant growth potential.
- Quality Rank: Strong (Score: 97.88/100) — Demonstrates high operational and financial quality.
- Momentum Rank: Strong (Score: 98.18/100) — Shows robust price momentum in the market.
The Verdict: Comfort Systems USA’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a robust growth and quality profile, supported by strong market momentum. However, its value score suggests that the stock is trading at a premium, which could concern value-focused investors.
Top ETFs Exposure
- First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF (NASDAQ:AIRR): 4.21% Weight
- Castellan Targeted Equity ETF (NASDAQ:CTEF): 5.99% Weight
- Congress SMid Growth ETF (NYSE:CSMD): 6.04% Weight
Significance: Because FIX carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.
FIX Price Action: Comfort Systems USA shares were up 3.60% at $1410.78 at the time of publication on Friday. The stock is trading at a new 52-week high, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo by Piotr Swat via Shutterstock
