The explosive growth of AI infrastructure is facing a sobering reality check as Eric Jackson warns that massive debt loads could turn today's market leaders like CoreWeave Inc.(NASDAQ:CRWV) into tomorrow's cautionary tales.
Real Revenue, Real Risk
While many skeptics compare the current AI surge to the 1990s tech bubble, Jackson argues that CoreWeave is fundamentally different from the “fake revenue” era of the Dot-com crash.
Instead, he draws a chilling parallel to the 1860s railroads—real physical infrastructure built on a mountain of precarious debt. “Railroads weren't frauds,” Jackson noted in a recent series of posts.
“They were real infrastructure with real customers.” However, he cautions that CoreWeave's $25 billion+ debt pile creates a “lenders first” structure where equity sits precariously behind the requirement for “constant growth.”
In this environment, even a minor deceleration in AI demand could trigger an equity wipeout.
Is CoreWeave the next dot-com blowup?
No.
Dot-com was fake revenue.
CoreWeave's revenue is real: $1.4B/quarter. $55B backlog. Microsoft and OpenAI contracts. Real GPUs. Real hyperscalers. Real demand.
According to him, the risk profile becomes clearer when comparing CoreWeave to competitors like IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ:IREN). Jackson, who holds a long position in IREN, highlights a divide in how these “BTC miners turned AI powerhouses” manage their assets.
While IREN owns approximately 4.5GW of power, CoreWeave leans heavily on leasing. “Ownership vs dependency is not a small difference,” Jackson argued, noting that when third-party providers fail, “guidance slips.”
This operational dependency, combined with CoreWeave's higher cost of capital, creates a fragile foundation for shareholders.
IREN vs CoreWeave is the most important comparison in AI infrastructure right now.
(Full confession: I'm long IREN now and no position in CRWV)
Same origin story: BTC miners pivoting into AI compute. Completely different risk profile.
As the market begins to differentiate between players, Jackson emphasizes that credit quality will be the ultimate “destiny” for leveraged infrastructure.
While CoreWeave boasts a $55 billion backlog and partnerships with OpenAI, the lack of a proven track record through a market downturn remains a red flag.
“Infrastructure doesn't fail. Equity structures do,” Jackson concluded. He maintains that if AI demand merely pauses, the “whole trade” shifts from growth potential to balance sheet stability, warning that in a market correction, “leverage decides” who survives.
CRWV Outperforms In 2026
Shares of CoreWeave have advanced by 24.63% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite index was down 1.50% in the same period.
The stock was 2.48% lower over the last six months and higher by 128.85% over the year. On Friday, the stock closed 8.12% lower at $89.25 apiece.
CRWV maintains a weak price trend over the medium and long terms but a strong trend in the short term, with a poor value ranking, as per Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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