How to Approach NerdWallet Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings Release?

NerdWallet, Inc. NRDS is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 25, after the closing bell.

In the third quarter of 2025, NRDS delivered an earnings beat, supported by a robust year-over-year increase in total revenues and improved operating discipline. 

The company has a decent earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and matched on two occasions, with an average earnings surprise of 42.50%.

Earnings Surprise History

Let us see how NRDS is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $211.9 million, calling for a 15.3% rise from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 17 cents per share. The projection suggests strong growth from the year-ago quarter's reported figure of 1 cent.

Estimate Revision Trend

Factors to Shape NRDS’ Q4 Results

NerdWallet continues to benefit from its strategic push to diversify its product portfolio and improve traffic monetization. Solid momentum in the banking and personal loans categories is expected to have supported healthy year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter.

For fourth-quarter 2025, the company projects revenues of $207-$250 million, indicating a year-over-year growth rate of 15% in the mid-point. Non-GAAP operating income is expected between $20 million and $24 million, underscoring management’s emphasis on scaling profitably while continuing to invest in growth initiatives.

NerdWallet is intensifying its focus on paid marketing to draw in high-intent users with more predictable returns, helping cushion the impacts of organic search headwinds, particularly in the Credit Cards and SMB segments. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Credit Cards revenues is $27.4 million, indicating a 19.7% sequential decline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SMB revenues is $23.3 million, indicating a 3.1% sequential increase, while Emerging Verticals revenues are projected at $54.4 million, implying a 15.9% sequential rise.

Additionally, management’s upward revision to 2025 operating income and EBITDA guidance reinforces confidence in structural margin expansion and improving cash flow generation. The company expects adjusted EBITDA of $141-$145 million for 2025, up from the prior mentioned $106-$116 million. For comparison, adjusted EBITDA totaled $108 million in 2024.

What Our Model Unveils for NRDS

Our proven model conclusively does not predict an earnings beat for NRDS this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

NerdWallet has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NRDS carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

NRDS’ Price Performance & Valuation

In the fourth quarter of 2025, NRDS shares outperformed the industry and its peer FUTU Holdings FUTU, while underperforming Lending Club LC. FUTU Holdings declined 6.9%, while Lending Club rose 26.9%.

Price Performance

Let us look at the value NRDS offers investors at the current levels.

Currently, NRDS is trading at 10.45X forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E). Meanwhile, the industry’s forward earnings multiple sits at 11.45X. The company’s valuation looks somewhat inexpensive compared with the industry average.

Price-to-Earnings F12M

Its peer, FUTU Holdings, is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 13.90X, whereas Lending Club is trading at 9.48X.

How to Play NRDS Stock Before Q4 Earnings?

NerdWallet is actively reducing its dependence on organic Google traffic by scaling performance marketing, leveraging AI-driven discovery and expanding deeper into financial services. Performance marketing is helping the company attract high-intent users with more predictable returns and stronger unit economics. 

The company is also enhancing monetization through vertical integration. Moves such as the acquisition of Next Door Lending in mortgages and prior SMB integrations allow it to capture more value across the customer journey, improving revenue visibility.

With profitability reaching an inflection point and operating leverage strengthening, fundamentals are improving. Hence, investors already owning the stock can benefit from NerdWallet’s continued execution and cash generation. In contrast, prospective investors may prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point or additional evidence of durable growth from AI-driven traffic and vertical integration initiatives.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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